Opta predict Liverpool victory at Forest as Pereira begins Premier League reign

Liverpool travel to the City Ground on Sunday knowing we need points in the Champions League chase, and Opta’s latest prediction suggests Arne Slot’s side are slight favourites, even if the underlying context makes this feel anything but straightforward.

Opta Analyst’s preview, which looked ahead to the weekend’s Premier League fixtures, states that “the probability of Arne Slot’s men winning at the City Ground on Sunday [is] 51%” while Nottingham Forest have been given “a 25.7% chance of victory.”

That is the sort of number that implies we should be edging this, yet it comes with a reminder that our relationship with this ground has not been kind in the league.

Opta also note that Liverpool have won just one of our last 15 away league games against Forest, with eight draws and six defeats in that run, and that solitary win came via a late Darwin Nunez header in March 2024.

Opta prediction for Liverpool vs Forest

Outcome	Probability
Liverpool win	51.0%
Draw	23.3%
Forest win	25.7%

Those odds sit awkwardly alongside what happened when Forest came to Anfield earlier this season, when BBC Sport described a defeat that was “embarrassing” in its ease as a Sean Dyche side cut through us and won 3-0.

That earlier meeting is also why Slot has spoken about the preparation being complicated by Forest’s constant reset, because Vitor Pereira is already the club’s fourth manager of the campaign.

“Back then, it was Dyche’s third or fourth game. That makes it a little bit more difficult. We only have tonight [Forest’s Europa League match at Fenerbahce] to see if this new manager changes personnel.”

Liverpool’s Forest task feels tougher than the numbers suggest

Forest arrive with belief after a big Europa League first-leg win at Fenerbahce, and the sense of a “new manager bounce” is always a factor when the opposition are playing with freedom and trying to prove a point in the first league match under a fresh voice.

Slot, meanwhile, is juggling selection again, with the injury picture still shaping our options.

“Jeremie will not be involved this weekend. We hope he will be involved next week if things go as planned.

“I think Joe is ready to start [against Forest]. Yes, he is.”

So, Opta make us favourites, and we have lifted spirits after wins over Sunderland and Brighton, but the numbers do not erase the warning signs around the City Ground record, Forest’s recent run against us, and the unpredictability that comes with yet another managerial switch.

If we are going to win this weekend, it probably looks less like a routine away day and more like a controlled, ruthless performance that refuses to let Forest’s momentum become the story again.

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