How Many Games Will the Toronto Raptors Win in the 2024-25 NBA season?

Following up one of the worst seasons in franchise history, I’m optimistic the Raptors will win more games this season.

The 2023-24 season for the Toronto Raptors was, on paper, one of their worst ever. With a final record of 25-57, it was the sixth poorest finish in team history, and their worst in over a decade (yes, even the shortened-season 2020-21 team picked up more wins).

There were massive roster changes that saw long-time, franchise players move on, a petty lawsuit surrounding the new coaching staff, and injuries. PLENTY of injuries.

But we’ve made it! The 2024-25 season is upon us, and as bad as last year was, things can only go up from here, right?

Sportsbook Projections

Luckily for us, our friends the oddsmakers allow folks to bet on NBA team’s win totals for each season, so we can start there! Taking a look at the line for the Raptors, FanDuel has them at 30.5 wins.

Obviously, there is no such thing as half a win in the NBA, so let’s settle on 30-31 wins. FanDuel favours over 30.5 whereas some other sportsbooks favour the under. Either way, the books seem pretty unanimously set at 30.5 as the line, so we’ll work with that.

Eastern Conference Projections

Last season in the Eastern Conference, 31 wins would put a team... 12th in the conference. Exactly where the Raptors finished in 2023-24. But, hey, still an improvement, right?

While technically that would be a year over year improvement, it also doesn’t take context into account. If the Raptors are going to win six more games, that means there will be at least six more losses spread out amongst the remaining 29 teams. Yay for math!

Looking around the Eastern Conference, there are going to be some teams that win fewer games. The three teams that stick out right away? The three that finished directly above the Raptors: the Brooklyn Nets, Atlanta Hawks, and Chicago Bulls.

Brooklyn, with 32 wins last season, finally moved off of Mikal Bridges, sending him to divisional rival New York Knicks. The Hawks sent Dejounte Murray to New Orleans in a move that is supposed to allow Trae Young to flourish as the lone ball handler, but it could also blow up in their face as they try to build chemistry with number one overall pick Zach Risacher. Finally, the Chicago Bulls are, well, the 2020s Chicago Bulls but without DeMar DeRozan. A very flawed team that has needed to move on from this core but refused to do so, until their hand was forced by the former Raptor moving on to Sacramento in free agency.

In my humble opinion, all three of those teams will finish with less wins than they had last season. Now, factor in everything the Toronto Raptors have going for them? I think the win total will be higher than 31.

Reasons To Be Optimistic

Darko Rajakovic will be in his second year of coaching a team in the NBA, with plenty of time to reflect on how to improve upon his rookie season. He also won’t have to deal with a rotating cast of players, as all the major moves have been made.

RJ Barrett, Immanuel Quickley and Kelly Olynyk will be with the team through training camp rather than being dropped in mid-season. Gradey Dick became a full time NBA player towards the end of last season, as some may forget he spent most of October through January bouncing between the G-League and Darko’s “special program” that they had outlined for the young guard.

Last, but certainly not least, now tack on the improvement of Scottie Barnes. A first-time All-Star in 2024, the former Rookie of the Year put up career highs across the board despite all the turnover going on throughout the roster. Now fully healthy and with the offence centered around himself, Barnes can take another step to truly become a superstar in this league.

Health can certainly play a role in messing all of this up, but to me, the stars have aligned for the Toronto Raptors to bounce back and perform above expectations. I would pump the brakes on playoff talk, but the play-in is certainly a possibility, especially in the East.

I am a betting man, so I’ll put my money where my mouth is. I’m taking the Toronto Raptors to finish the 2024-25 NBA season with… 38 wins!