Chart Timbits: October Forwards - Behind the Scoring Stats

This fanpost is about the Leafs forwards. Freddy and the defence have been covered a lot, not much I can add. Last year the Leafs were known for rolling three dangerous forward lines. We argued about who the number two line was and all of us were right.

Slumps and scoring phenoms are magnified at this time of year but Halloween is almost here, time to tally up the good, the bad, and the ugly. We should be pleased that Auston is a beast and the Leafs are 7-4 but most of us see some troubling things going on with the forwards. I chose four charts and focused on 5 on 5 play, they don't tell the whole story but maybe they tell enough of it.

First, let's look at points.

Stop admiring Matthews and Kadri and applauding Brownie for pushing to get off the 4th line. Look waaay down.

Komarov is peeking out from zero land after 11 games. I know he's a defensive forward but he needs to do better on a second line with a center like Kadri. Next up, Marner and Bozak with two points each 5 on 5. Terrible start. Komarov and Bozak are pending UFA's and Mitch is hoping to get a big extension. These stats won't help, especially with the share of ice time they're getting. Even Moore and Martin are doing better and they play fewer minutes.

TL;DR? Komarov, Marner, and Bozak are below the Martin Line.

Babs tells his guys to at least compete. So let's ignore points and goals and just see who is competing, who is putting themselves in position for scoring chances.

Poor Willie, leading the team and most of the League in expected goals yet only one goal 5 on 5 so far. I expect him to show a turnaround soon because he's competing. (Meanwhile, Auston just keeps terrorizing goalies with his American Sniper shots.)

Now time to check the bottom again. I hate this part but it needs to be done, like eating veggies. Bozak is tied with Willie in goals but I'd call that luck. His expected goal rate is nearly zero. The way Bozak is going he will end up with the lowest goals on the team, lower than Martin and Komarov despite his ice time! I know some centers pass more and shoot less and early season slumps are magnified and blah blah blah but Babs needs to find a way to get Bozak going or he will be the highest paid 4C in the League. Not a good look if you're a pending UFA. I'm sure Bozie is motivated. I would be.

How has this affected the Leafs as a team? Well, other teams are focusing on stopping the Matthews line and feasting on Bozie's third line. It makes it harder to win when you can't roll three (or even two) equally dangerous lines.
Right now, here's what other teams see when they look at the Leafs lines:

Bright spot: Auston and Willie up among the league leaders in +/- (see numbers by names) while facing stronger opposition and they are starting more in their own zone too at the expense of giving Bozak's line more offensive zone starts (not shown). (I know +/- is a flawed stat but it's adjusted and tells a story here.)

Now back to the bottom six (I didn't know we had one until I made this chart.) Notice how the lines are basically organized by quality of competition? Kadri's line got the toughest competition (TOI% QOC) last year, now it's Matthews.

We all know about Mitch. An adjusted +/- of -5.84 sucks and that's one reason why he was moved down the lineup. Babs famously said "tie goes to the veteran, how about that?" when asked why it was Marner. But centers bear more responsibility defensively and Bozak is actually worse at -6.16. This is what happens when you look lost in your own zone and you aren't generating scoring chances. Bozak's line looks like a hot mess defensively right now.

TL:DR? Leafs Bottom 6 is dragging the team down

One last chart - I want to show the otherwordliness of Matthews as a sophomore center relative to the other lines. This is an elite line, playing both ends of the ice, and it stands out from the rest of the team this October. And Willie hasn't had any scoring luck yet!

So many Leafs above the 50% line, meaning as a team Leafs are getting more quality scoring chances than they are giving up. And this shows that Mitch, although we all see his struggles, has more upside potential once his game settles down.

This is all very good (except once you factor in Andersen's save percentage so far). But back to the forwards - Bozak, Brown, and Martin are on the ice for more expected goals against than for the Leafs. Brown is a bit of a surprise but he played some time with Bozak (cough). As the 12th forward getting less ice-time, I'm not too fussed about Martin.

I'm more concerned about Bozak. I love the guy, I just want him to find a way to get going. Soon.

Data: corsica.hockey