Divide and Rule; Olympic Boycotts; Three Seas; Spy Bust

Hello, and welcome to China Influence Monitor, a weekly newsletter published by CEPA and Coda Story and edited by me, Edward Lucas. We track the westward footprint of China’s influence operations, and their effects on politics, economies, societies, and alliances across Central Asia, the Caucasus, Russia, and Europe.

DIVIDE AND RULE 

At an online summit with Emmanuel Macron and Angela Merkel, Xi Jinping suggested a “Quad” in which the two big European countries and China would coordinate their development and other work in Africa.

There’s no sign of African countries being consulted about this gimmicky proposal. And it didn’t feature in the French or German read-outs of the talks.

A previous three-way meeting was in April. Since then the US administration has chivvied the G7 into taking a tougher line on China, especially the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). This call shows how the party-state is trying to split the EU by wooing France and Germany.

Instead, suggests Lithuania, China should confront the full weight of the EU, representing 445 million people and with a $20 trillion GDP (measured by purchasing power), at a 27+1 summit. A splenetic warning from Global Times shows that the gutsy government in Vilnius is on the right track on this (and on Taiwan).

The EU is at least talking about challenging the already-wobbly BRI. European governments have tasked the Commission to find “high impact and visible projects” to rival the infrastructure scheme (for more on EU-China policy read Grzegorz Stec’s backgrounder for RUSI).

Words are plentiful, deeds less so. The most practical counter to China’s influence in Europe is the Three Seas Initiative, backed by some hefty US financing, which aims to boost connectivity between the Baltic, Adriatic, and the Black Sea. But the scheme lacks an institutional framework or consistent leadership. This week’s summit flop in Sofia justifies our earlier skepticism about Bulgaria’s stewardship of the rotating presidency. Let’s hope Latvia (up next) does better.

• China used to be neutral on Israel-Palestine. Not any more. Applying heat to Israel punishes it for supporting US-led criticism of China’s human-rights record at the UN — and may help the party-state distract attention in the Islamic world from its treatment of Muslims.

• Lawmakers often show more spine than governments. In Britain and in the European Parliament calls are growing for a political boycott of the Beijing Olympics. Andréa Worden of Sinopsis in Prague unpicks Olympic chief Thomas Bach’s collusion with China’s agenda: silencing human-rights and media-freedom concerns by squeezing out the UN.

• British business leaders continue to cozy up to Beijing, encouraged by the chancellor, Rishi Sunak, despite hawkish rhetorical shifts (analyzed here). A good indicator will be whether the government uses its shiny new national security investment tools to stop the sale of the country’s largest chip foundry to a Chinese buyer.

• Germans are digesting the arrest of a think-tank expert identified only as “Klaus L” who is accused of spying for China (evidently a busy man, he also worked part-time for Germany’s BND spy service). Abundant biographical details made it easy for the Times and other foreign news outlets to name him. He’s innocent until proven guilty, so we won’t get into the lurid details at this stage. But Italian spy-catchers are boasting about their role in the case.

• China has also stoked its relations with Russia on cyber-security, infrastructure, and the Arctic. History suggests these deals usually lack substance — but they send a message to the United States.