Oscars 2022: Best Actor/Actress Nominees Ranked By Likelihood To Win, According To GoldDerby
GoldDerby's expert predictions give clues to who might win this year's prestigious Best Actor and Best Actress awards at the 2022 Oscars.
As every Hollywood awards season draws to a close with the Academy Awards, GoldDerby’s expert predictions start off from early critics' awards and other prizes such as the Golden Globes, Screen Actors Guild, and Critics’ Choice.
With only a few weeks remaining for this year’s Oscar ceremony, a close battle is ensuing in the lead acting categories. For Best Actor, Will Smith is the frontrunner although Benedict Cumberbatch could take the top spot. When it comes to Best Actress, Kristen Stewart has been a critical darling but Jessica Chastain or Olivia Colman might just take the lead. Here is a summation of the GoldDerby predictions so far.
After earning two Best Actor nominations for Ali and The Pursuit of Happyness, 2022 might finally be Will Smith’s year. His inspirational turn as Richard Williams has drawn rave reviews. A sports biopic nominated for Best Picture, King Richard covers the adolescent journey of future tennis stars Venus and Serena Williams as their father pushes them to the limits to achieve their dreams.
Smith is having quite a blast this awards season, earning himself a Golden Globe and more recently a Screen Actors Guild award for Best Male Actor in a Leading Role. However, some critics have sided with Benedict Cumberbatch who seems to be the biggest threat in Smith’s way.
Benedict Cumberbatch’s tryst with Oscars began in 2014 when he was nominated for playing Alan Turing in The Imitation Game. His role in The Power of the Dog however is a far cry from the mild-mannered computer genius. His turn in Jane Campion’s slow-burning Western drama is one of Benedict Cumberbatch's best roles. He appears as a short-tempered rancher who evokes a sense of toxic masculinity.
He is the most likely to win this year if Will Smith fails to grab the golden statuette. Most of the film critics' awards are on the British actor’s side and he even made it to “Best Performance” by IndieWire’s critics’ poll.
While Smith and Cumberbatch have been receiving acclaim for their powerful dramas, Andrew Garfield is being praised for his role in the musical genre. With equal amounts of energetic charm and teary-eyed emotion, Garfield plays the real-life Broadway icon, Jonathan Larson, in the semi-autobiographical Tick, Tick…Boom. The Spider-Man actor performed all of his songs despite not having much musical experience.
However, his chances of winning are lessened given how drama actors are more likely to win over those who star in musicals or comedies, as illustrated by GoldDerby's list of every Best Actor winner.
Two-time Oscar winner Denzel Washington is the latest actor to take up Macbeth’s role in Joel Coen’s faithful film adaptation of the Shakespeare play. Along with his co-star Frances McDormand, Washington captures the angst and greed of the tragic antihero in archaic dialogues straight out of the Bard’s pages.
Despite the acclaim that The Tragedy of Macbeth is getting, Washington’s performance doesn’t seem to have garnered the same hype as Smith, Cumberbatch, and Garfield. So far, Washington has only managed to secure nominations in the major awards and film critics’ circles without recieing any wins.
Javier Bardem plays the legendary I Love Lucy actor Desi Arnaz in Aaron Sorkin’s latest feature Being The Ricardos. The movie captures the troubles in the marriage of Desi Arnaz and Lucille Ball while capturing the behind-the-scenes chaos of the soap opera they were a part of.
However, most of the praise is specifically targeted towards his co-star Nicole Kidman who is more of a frontrunner in her category than Bardem is in his. Apart from the Oscar nomination, Bardem’s major award nominations so far include Golden Globes and the Screen Actors Guild.
Starring alongside Andrew Garfield, Jessica Chastain plays the titular televangelist in The Eyes of Tammy Faye. The biopic charts her rise as a TV icon and her eventual downfall. Before this year, Chastain has been a double Oscar nominee for her roles in The Help and Zero Dark Thirty.
It is surprising to find Chastain in GoldDerby’s top spot right now as she has hardly won any major awards for her performance this year. Apart from her acting, The Eyes of Tammy Faye hardly drew any critical praise when compared to other biopics of 2021. So, Chastain’s win might be a long shot for some with anyone else usurping her position.
After winning Best Lead Actress for The Favorite and garnering a Supporting Actress nomination for last year’s The Father, Olivia Colman has returned to the Oscars with the psychological thriller The Lost Daughter.
Much like Chastain, Colman can’t be seen as a clear frontrunner right now as she has only managed to gain nominations elsewhere. Some significant wins though include laurels at the Gotham Awards and London Critics Circle. If she actually manages to win this year, then her victory will be comparable to that of Frances McDormand who won for Three Billboards and Nomadland again in a gap of three years.
In Being The Ricardos, Nicole Kidman breathes life into Lucille Ball, capturing the legendary comedienne’s jubilant on-screen energy as well as her behind-the-scenes sadness. Her performance has been the highlight of most of the critical reviews.
When it comes to the Oscars, Nicole Kidman's best movies included The Hours for which she won a Supporting Actress Oscar followed by four more nominations (including her latest one). For her performance in Being The Ricardos, Kidman has had a more favorable win record than Chastain and Colman, winning at the Golden Globes, AACTA, and Palm Springs Film Festival.
Arguably the best movie based on Princess Diana’s life, Spencer was anchored by a committed lead performance by Kristen Stewart. The movie re-enacts a tragic phase of the late royal’s life with elements of magical realism.
Despite gaining immense critical acclaim and winning at film critics' circles, Stewart was surprisingly snubbed at this year’s major awards like the BAFTAs and Screen Actors Guild. At the Golden Globes, she managed to get a nomination but lost out to Nicole Kidman. Even though she ranks fourth on GoldDerby’s predictions right now, it is yet to be seen whether she manages to be the surprise winner.
Penélope Cruz’s nomination for the Spanish drama Madres paralelas proved to be quite a pleasant surprise as she hadn’t been nominated at any of the mainstream awards. Still, the boost from the film festivals and critics’ circle nominations might have helped her case.
Still, her chances of winning aren’t as high as her fellow nominees as can be seen from her ranking on GoldDerby. Still, it is a notable nomination and this marks the second time Cruz has been nominated for a movie directed by her usual collaborator Pedro Almodóvar, the first being her 2007 nomination for Volver.