What is Most Needed Against the REAL Contenders?
We look at the season as a whole a lot -- How many games will we win? How many points will Zion average? Can Trey Murphy win MIP?
At the end of the day, it all comes down to the playoffs and matching up against the best of the best. When you look at those teams, and those teams only -- what is the biggest thing we are missing to really compete head to head with the teams who can possibly come out of the West. Personally, I only see 4 teams that can come out of the West. A lot of good teams, but winning 3 playoff series is a different beast. To me, the only teams I think can do it are: Golden State, Dallas, Denver, and the Clippers, with Golden State and LA being the most likely, Denver next, and Dallas the one long shot just because they have the guy most capable of going young Lebron vs the Pistons and winning a series on his own against a superior team. With that in mind, I ask myself: What would the Pels need to be able to matchup up better against those teams?
Warriors -- Jonas would be a major liability in this series. Sure, he could dominate the offensive glass for stretches, but he would be hunted endlessly and would be a major net negative. So, this is a Nance series, with Trey possibly finishing games too. And no, you are not looking for a guy to "cover" Steph, because whoever defends him comes off him due to all the screens they run him through. Though I will say that Jose could be useful as a Delladova type pest who just wears Steph down. What you would need in this series is even more switchable length, but you cant sacrifice rebounding, as that is where Wiggins really helped in the Finals last year. If I had to try and construct a team to beat GS, I would go get Alec Burks and Diallo from Detroit for Graham and Temple (and probably a late 1st). Burks is a good shooter, but also a better defender than most realize. Diallo is another energy guy you can throw in Games 3, 4, and 5 of the series for 10 minutes to show a different look and pester their perimeter guys.
Clippers - I think Jonas could actually play quite a bit in the series. Can match Zubac's minutes, and then pull him when the Clippers go to their 5 wings lineup. What the Pels would need here is some shooting to space the floor and keep Zion from having to go through 5 long wings on his way to the basket. But the shooter can't be a major liability on D, otherwise he will be hunted by Kawhi and PG. Again, I like Burks here, but the ideal guy to me is Harrison Barnes. Vet experience and has the length and strength to take some possessions against Kawhi. When Clips finish with their 5 perimeter, switching wings, Pels can finish with CJ-BI-Barnes-Zion and either Herb or Trey. They could win that battle at end of games if its Zion at the rim vs. Kawhi from 18 feet
Nuggets - This is the toughest one to me because the Nuggets are a team that plays as greater than the sum of their parts when all is clicking. The easy take here is you need someone to defend Jokic, but that guy doesnt exist. I actually go the other way and defend him straight up and let him get 40 while I lock in on the other guys, kind of like how the Spurs used to play the Suns. I think the key in this series would be having multiple people to throw at Murray so he doesn't get hot. Herb can check him, but I think he shoots over Jose and is too quick for Trey, and too savvy for young Dyson. I would go out and try to get someone like Josh Richardson here. A guy who can spell Herb and knock down 3's when open.
Mavericks - This one is simple to me. You just need as many long arms as possible to clog passing lanes and close out on shooters when Luka gets into the teeth of the defense. Like Jokic, he really kills you when he is both scoring and dishing out to open shooters, so I would stay at home a ton. I would also go under all screens and live with Luka shooting 33% from behind the arc. But what I really want to do is hard hedge like we did vs Portland a few years ago and that requires mobile bigs. I got one in Nance. Maybe I got another in Hayes if he matures this season, but I am not going to rely on that, so I would go get one more. Once their season starts going down the drain, I call up the Knicks, as Thibs refuses to play the young dudes and I steal Jericho Sims off their bench (he is now their 3rd string center). He is insanely raw and can't hit a FT, but for 15 minutes per game, he can trap and hard hedge vs Luka and recover with insane length and athleticism. If I want more of a vet, I call up the Spurs for Zach Collins and hope he stays healthy.
The common denominator seems to be length, switchability, and shooting, which is not a big surprise. Leads me to believe that the major X Factors for this season are Trey and Nance. They play fantastic, the Pels can match up with anyone. If not, you need to go out and get at least one more guy who can give you all that
At the end of the day, it all comes down to the playoffs and matching up against the best of the best. When you look at those teams, and those teams only -- what is the biggest thing we are missing to really compete head to head with the teams who can possibly come out of the West. Personally, I only see 4 teams that can come out of the West. A lot of good teams, but winning 3 playoff series is a different beast. To me, the only teams I think can do it are: Golden State, Dallas, Denver, and the Clippers, with Golden State and LA being the most likely, Denver next, and Dallas the one long shot just because they have the guy most capable of going young Lebron vs the Pistons and winning a series on his own against a superior team. With that in mind, I ask myself: What would the Pels need to be able to matchup up better against those teams?
Warriors -- Jonas would be a major liability in this series. Sure, he could dominate the offensive glass for stretches, but he would be hunted endlessly and would be a major net negative. So, this is a Nance series, with Trey possibly finishing games too. And no, you are not looking for a guy to "cover" Steph, because whoever defends him comes off him due to all the screens they run him through. Though I will say that Jose could be useful as a Delladova type pest who just wears Steph down. What you would need in this series is even more switchable length, but you cant sacrifice rebounding, as that is where Wiggins really helped in the Finals last year. If I had to try and construct a team to beat GS, I would go get Alec Burks and Diallo from Detroit for Graham and Temple (and probably a late 1st). Burks is a good shooter, but also a better defender than most realize. Diallo is another energy guy you can throw in Games 3, 4, and 5 of the series for 10 minutes to show a different look and pester their perimeter guys.
Clippers - I think Jonas could actually play quite a bit in the series. Can match Zubac's minutes, and then pull him when the Clippers go to their 5 wings lineup. What the Pels would need here is some shooting to space the floor and keep Zion from having to go through 5 long wings on his way to the basket. But the shooter can't be a major liability on D, otherwise he will be hunted by Kawhi and PG. Again, I like Burks here, but the ideal guy to me is Harrison Barnes. Vet experience and has the length and strength to take some possessions against Kawhi. When Clips finish with their 5 perimeter, switching wings, Pels can finish with CJ-BI-Barnes-Zion and either Herb or Trey. They could win that battle at end of games if its Zion at the rim vs. Kawhi from 18 feet
Nuggets - This is the toughest one to me because the Nuggets are a team that plays as greater than the sum of their parts when all is clicking. The easy take here is you need someone to defend Jokic, but that guy doesnt exist. I actually go the other way and defend him straight up and let him get 40 while I lock in on the other guys, kind of like how the Spurs used to play the Suns. I think the key in this series would be having multiple people to throw at Murray so he doesn't get hot. Herb can check him, but I think he shoots over Jose and is too quick for Trey, and too savvy for young Dyson. I would go out and try to get someone like Josh Richardson here. A guy who can spell Herb and knock down 3's when open.
Mavericks - This one is simple to me. You just need as many long arms as possible to clog passing lanes and close out on shooters when Luka gets into the teeth of the defense. Like Jokic, he really kills you when he is both scoring and dishing out to open shooters, so I would stay at home a ton. I would also go under all screens and live with Luka shooting 33% from behind the arc. But what I really want to do is hard hedge like we did vs Portland a few years ago and that requires mobile bigs. I got one in Nance. Maybe I got another in Hayes if he matures this season, but I am not going to rely on that, so I would go get one more. Once their season starts going down the drain, I call up the Knicks, as Thibs refuses to play the young dudes and I steal Jericho Sims off their bench (he is now their 3rd string center). He is insanely raw and can't hit a FT, but for 15 minutes per game, he can trap and hard hedge vs Luka and recover with insane length and athleticism. If I want more of a vet, I call up the Spurs for Zach Collins and hope he stays healthy.
The common denominator seems to be length, switchability, and shooting, which is not a big surprise. Leads me to believe that the major X Factors for this season are Trey and Nance. They play fantastic, the Pels can match up with anyone. If not, you need to go out and get at least one more guy who can give you all that