MLB Best Bets: Lots of Runs, and Lots of Running, in Dodgers-Rays Game
Taking the over feels like a safe bet in this matchup, and we’ve got a stolen base prop worth taking, too.
The Dodgers will be in Tampa Bay tonight to take on the Rays. Who expects some fireworks? Games at Tropicana Field have averaged 9.07 runs per game this year, and with +100 odds for tonight’s game to go over, I’ll be rooting for runs.
The Dodgers have averaged 5.47 runs per game this year (third most in MLB) while the Rays have averaged 5.96, second only to the Rangers.
With Noah Syndergaard getting the start for the Dodgers and Jalen Beeks opening a bullpen game for the Rays, I don’t expect a pitching duel.
Beeks has been solid in the three games he has opened in May, allowing only three earned runs across 11⅔ innings pitched. His April was not so sharp, as he allowed 11 earned runs across just 13 ⅓ innings. Statcast has his xERA at 3.07. Whether we see good Beeks or bad Beeks, what we will probably not see is a lot of Beeks. The lefty has not pitched more than three innings in any start this season. The Rays bullpen, which started out hot in April, has since begun to falter, allowing 59 earned runs across just the past two weeks for an ERA of 8.52.
Dave Nelson/USA Today Sports
Syndergaard has an ERA of 5.88 this season with an xERA of 5.11. His fastball lacks its former velocity and spin and he’s not striking out batters or fooling anyone. This Rays team should be able to get to him early, and they will run on him, too. Runners have a 93% success rate vs. Syndergaard in his career, and he allows a stolen base every 4.4 innings. Wander Franco, who has 17 stolen bases this year and three multiple stolen base games, should have a green light tonight. Friday night is a good night to bet on any stolen base prop that gives a nice payout. Randy Arozarena, Taylor Walls, Jose Siri, Brandon Lowe and Manuel Margot could all be running tonight.
For their part, the Dodgers bullpen has also been struggling with an ERA of 4.26 across the last two weeks,
Two of the best hitting teams in baseball will have the bats out tonight. Let’s root for double digits.
The Bets: Over 9 +100 | Wander Franco stolen base +190
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