NOAA releases Pacific hurricane forecasts
AUSTIN (KXAN) — Last week NOAA released its Atlantic Hurricane Season forecast, but they also debuted the Central and Eastern Pacific hurricane forecasts too. Storms in the Pacific Ocean can still impact our weather here in Central Texas, under the right circumstances.
The Tropical Basins
NOAA has two hurricane centers responsible for different parts of the world. The National Hurricane Center, based in Miami, Florida, is responsible for tropical activity in the Atlantic Ocean north of the Equator, including activity into the Gulf of Mexico.
The NHC is also responsible for tropical activity that develops in the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, north of the equator and east of 140º W longitude until you reach Mexico and Central America.
For storms west of 140º W longitude and east of 180º W the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu, Hawaii takes charge.
Hurricane seasons aren't exactly the same for these three basins.
For the Atlantic and Central Pacific basin hurricane season runs June 1 - November 30.
For the Eastern North Pacific Basin hurricane season runs May 15 - November 30.
2023 hurricane forecasts by basin
Atlantic Basin
The Atlantic Hurricane Season outlook calls for a 40% chance for a near-normal season, a 30% chance the season is below normal and a 30% chance that the season is above normal.
Eastern North Pacific Basin
The Eastern Pacific hurricane outlook has a 55% chance for an above average season in 2023 with a 35% chance for a near normal season and only a 10% chance for a below normal season.
Central Pacific Basin
The Central Pacific hurricane outlook calls for a 50% chance for an above normal hurricane season in 2023 with a 35% chance of near normal activity with only a 15% chance for a below normal season.
So while the Atlantic has the highest odds on a near-normal season, both Pacific basins have odds favoring an above average season. This pattern is very typical of an El Niño summer.
In Depth: Pacific storms and Central Texas
The majority of tropical systems in the Pacific Ocean have very little impact on Central Texas. However, some storms, or at least the excessive moisture from them, can get pulled across Mexico and can bring a higher flood risk for us in the late fall months.
Our second rainy season comes late summer through mid-fall in Central Texas and moisture from these Pacific storms can play a part.