Will Shohei Ohtani Break Aaron Judge's HR Record This Year?
The dual-threat superstar is on a ridiculous home run pace and has a legitimate shot at Judge's home run record just a year after being set.
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Shohei Ohtani of the Los Angeles Angels continues to be a fantastic MLB story. Not just with his dual-threat capabilities as a pitcher and hitter but with the pace he’s set in his home run tally. The gifted athlete is currently on track to break the American League’s home run record of 62, set by Aaron Judge last season.
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Ohtani’s odds of hitting more than 62.5 home runs are set at 15 to 1, and for surpassing 59.5 home runs, the odds are 3 to 1. Despite a recent blister injury that may lead to him missing some time, there doesn’t appear to be a significant concern about these numbers shifting dramatically. Of course, the situation could evolve depending on whether Ohtani continues to bat in the lineup over the next few days and how the blister impacts his performance.
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But can Ohtani realistically reach 63 home runs by the end of the season? While it’s an exciting prospect, several factors at play could pose challenges. Baseball players often thrive on a consistent rhythm and routine. Any disruption, such as time off or an alteration in their daily routine, can impact their performance significantly. This effect might be even more pronounced for a dual-threat player like Ohtani, who maintains a demanding schedule as both a pitcher and a hitter.
Consider the psychological pressure as well. Just as we saw with Aaron Judge last year, who seemed stuck on 61 home runs for a while due to the mounting mental strain, Ohtani might face similar pressure, mainly if the Angels are in playoff contention.
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The fact that the Angels play in a large media market (Anaheim, not Los Angeles, as many claim) could further amplify this pressure. Though a 15 to 1 bet might seem enticing for risk-takers, it might be safer to bet against Ohtani breaking the record this year.
The stark difference in odds between 59.5 and 62.5 home runs (3 to 1 versus 15 to 1) suggests that bookmakers see 61 as the likely ceiling. With just a three-home run difference causing such a significant jump in odds, there’s clear skepticism about Ohtani surpassing this milestone. Nonetheless, the season is still in progress, and anything is possible with a player as talented as Ohtani.
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