Poll: Porter, Schiff, still lead ‘wide open’ California Senate race, but Lee, Garvey make gains

Republican former baseball star Steve Garvey gained in the latest U.S. Senate race poll and leads the GOP field, but with two other Republicans still drawing significant support, Garvey trails the two top Democrats.

A poll Friday showed Southern California Reps. Katie Porter and Adam Schiff still leading the race to succeed the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein in the U.S. Senate, but fellow Democratic East Bay Rep. Barbara Lee and former Los Angeles Dodgers star and Republican Steve Garvey made gains in what remains a wide-open race.

The Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll shows Irvine’s Porter holding at 17% while her chief rival Schiff of Burbank dipped to 16% — a four-point drop since the organization’s last survey in August. Support for Lee, of Oakland, edged upward to 9% and for Garvey, who formally announced his candidacy Oct. 10, to 10%. They both have jumped from 7% in the last poll.

But with 30% of voters — nearly one in three — still undecided, Berkeley IGS said the March 5 primary race, in which the top two finishers regardless of party will emerge to compete for the seat in November 2024, “remains a wide-open affair.”

“While Garvey’s candidacy seems to have made a splash among the state’s Republican voters, Porter and Schiff are still neck and neck at this point, and remain ahead of the rest of the field,” said IGS Co-Director G. Cristina Mora.

Gov. Gavin Newsom last month appointed Laphonza Butler, who headed an organization promoting women candidates who support abortion rights, to serve the remainder of Feinstein’s term, fulfilling a promise to appoint a Black woman should the opportunity arise. Butler announced she will not run to seek a full term.

Two other recent Democratic entrants, Silicon Valley business executive Lexie Reese and Los Angeles TV reporter Christina Pascucci, haven’t made much of a splash. Both polled at 1% according to IGS — for Reese, the figure remained unchanged since August.

While the poll was encouraging for Garvey, the Republican field is split chiefly among the former first-baseman, businessman James Bradley and lawyer Eric Early. Bradley remained at 7% while Early’s support dipped from 5% to 4% since August.

If Republican voters now supporting Bradley and Early consolidate their support around Garvey, it could catapult the baseball star to the front of the Democrat-led pack. That could put a Republican in the November runoff, as was the case in the 2022 race in which appointed Democratic incumbent Alex Padilla defeated the GOP’s little-known Mark Meuser.

With Republican support split, the November runoff is likely to be a Democrat-only contest, like Feinstein’s last re-election in 2018 where she defeated challenger Kevin de León, now a Los Angeles city councilman.

“As Californians become reacquainted with (Steve) Garvey and learn more about his common-sense, solution-oriented campaign to improve their lives, we believe this will become a race to beat Steve Garvey,” said Garvey campaign spokesman Matt Shupe.

Schiff’s campaign had no comment on the poll. But though results suggest a setback against chief rival Porter, Schiff continues to dominate the field in fundraising and he has scooped up clutch endorsements, including the new Democratic state Assembly Speaker, Robert Rivas, of Salinas. He’s also endorsed by Rep. Nancy Pelosi.

Perhaps most importantly. Schiff has dominated the field in fundraising, collecting a net $5.9 million in the third quarter compared to $3.4 million for Porter and $1 million for Lee, and now has $32 million in campaign cash on hand compared to $12 million for Porter and $1.3 million for Lee.

Campaign reports aren’t yet available for Garvey. Early reported $87,000 and Bradley just $345 in campaign cash on hand.

Porter’s campaign had no immediate comment. But in an emailed fundraising pitch, her campaign noted the poll showed “Katie one point ahead of all other candidates in this race!” But it added that “nearly half of likely voters have no opinion of Katie, and about a third of voters remain undecided about who they’ll support.”

“While our slim advantage is a sign of our momentum,” Porter’s fundraising pitch continued, “there are still a lot of voters who could decide this race, and we need to introduce them to Katie ASAP.”

While Lee continues to trail her fellow Democratic representatives, the poll offered signs of encouragement, with a 2 percentage point gain. She also leads the field among Black voters, places second behind Schiff among Bay Area voters, slightly leads the other candidates in the North Coast and Sierras, and places second behind Porter with voters under 40.

“This race is still wide open,” said Lee campaign spokesman David Graham-Caso. “Congresswoman Lee has been traveling the state, connecting with the key constituencies and this poll shows that work is paying off. Three months before ballots drop, our campaign is confident that Congresswoman Lee will be in the top two in March.”