Stark divergence in projected returns of private and PSU banks in next one year: Will analysts again be caught on the wrong foot?

One sector where the street has been giving differential treatment for many years has been the banking space. Private banks were preferred over their PSU counterparts. But three years back, things started to change. Much loved private sector banks started to stagnate, both in terms of absolute price movement and also in valuations. It was not that immediately the PSU banks came into limelight, there was a phase of more than a year when both private and public sector banks were ignored. But then a year back it was PSU banks which got into limelight and since then have been doing well. But as they say, any kind of bias dont go away easily. Analysts estimates for next year's upside potential are far higher for private sector banks as compared to PSU banks. Possibly they are taking into account the fact that when the capex cycle takes upturn, which it has, PSU banks are much more likely to benefit as they have balance size and more importantly the mind set for that kind of lending.