Nvidia stock could soar 81% if investors recognize its full potential as an AI ecosystem, rather than just a chipmaker, Evercore says

"We think investors underestimate the importance of the chip+hardware+software ecosystem that Nvidia has created," Evercore ISI said.

• Nvidia stock could soar 81% if investors realize that it's more than just a chip company, according to Evercore ISI.
• The firm said Nvidia has morphed into an AI ecosystem play that could generate $69 per share in earnings power by 2030.
• "We think investors underestimate the importance of the chip+hardware+software ecosystem that Nvidia has created," Evercore said. 

Nvidia stock still has big upside potential even after it's surged more than 200% over the past year, according to a note this week from Evercore ISI.

The firm initiated Nvidia at "Outperform" with a $1,160 price target, representing potential upside of 36% from current levels. And in its bull-case scenario, Evercore said Nvidia stock could surge to $1,540 in the next year, a jump of 81% from current levels. 

Driving that lofty price target is the idea that Nvidia is much more than a chip company, but the bulk of investors still only see it as that.

"We think investors underestimate 1) the importance of the chip+hardware+software ecosystem that Nvidia has created, 2) that computing eras last 15-20 years and are typically dominated by a single vertically integrated ecosystem company, whose returns are measured in 100-to-1000 bagger range," Evercore's Mark Lipacis said.

The key thesis behind Lipacis' bullish call is that Nvidia is an AI ecosystem play, and it's the clear leader in a new computing platform that will drive efficiency gains for years to come.

"That 'Ecosystem Play' typically captures 80% of the value created during its respective computing era, while other[s] compete for the other 20%," Lipacis said. 

Lipacis expects Nvidia to capture 80% of the parallel processing market by 2030, which could be worth more than $350 billion. In such a scenario, Nvidia would have an earnings power of $69 per share by the end of the decade, compared to the company generating earnings per share of $11.93 last year. 

"We believe that the Tectonic Shift to the current Parallel Processing / IoT Computing Era started 5-to-8 years ago, and that NVDA is the dominant ecosystem play in parallel processing, which is only in the beginning phases of generating outsized returns for its investors," Lipacis said.