The Increasing Risk of Radicalisation: Pakistan’s Labour Force in the Age of AI

Over the past decades, Pakistan has faced significant challenges related to radicalization and terrorism. Instances of terror financing, training of militants, and harboring known terrorists have drawn global attention. In response, the international community has imposed various sanctions and anti-money laundering protocols on Pakistan, which has struggled with economic instability due to poor macroeconomic decisions […]

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Over the past decades, Pakistan has faced significant challenges related to radicalization and terrorism. Instances of terror financing, training of militants, and harboring known terrorists have drawn global attention. In response, the international community has imposed various sanctions and anti-money laundering protocols on Pakistan, which has struggled with economic instability due to poor macroeconomic decisions by successive governments.

As Pakistan’s social, economic, and political situation continues to deteriorate, there are several pressing issues that require international attention. Chief among these is the increasing risk of radicalization among a large segment of the Pakistani population.

The Current State of Pakistan’s Human Capital

Pakistan’s current population is estimated to be around 240 million. Of this, approximately 40% are illiterate, and the unemployment rate has risen to 9.6%. The Future of Jobs Report 2023 highlighted that Pakistan has one of the most negative outlooks globally regarding talent development, with only 45% of participants feeling optimistic about future talent growth. Additionally, Pakistan’s skill stability is at 44%, below the global average of 56%.

With the rise of AI and big data, it is estimated that 17% of jobs in Pakistan are at high risk of automation, particularly in sectors like manufacturing and customer service. This shift poses significant challenges for a workforce heavily reliant on manual labor.

The situation for children in Pakistan is equally concerning. There are approximately 86 million children under 14, making up about 36% of the population. An estimated 22.8 million children aged 5-16 are out of school, representing 44% of this age group. According to the 2021 Annual Status of Education Report (ASER), Pakistan has a learning poverty rate of 77%, meaning most children cannot read and understand simple text by age 10.

The World Bank’s Pakistan Human Capital Review reveals a Human Capital Index (HCI) of 0.41 for Pakistan, indicating that a child born today will only be 41% as productive as they could be with complete education and full health. Many children receive education from unregulated Madrasas, which often teach outdated and incorrect materials, exacerbating the human capital crisis.

The Grim Future Outlook

Over 50 million individuals in Pakistan are at high risk of facing a bleak future. The current and upcoming labor force is ill-equipped to handle the rapid technological advancements that threaten to make many skills obsolete. Automation, particularly in AI, is likely to displace numerous jobs, creating a significant skills gap.

AI’s impact extends beyond job displacement. It also challenges job quality and ethical considerations, potentially perpetuating bias and affecting workers’ privacy and autonomy. This issue is particularly pronounced in densely populated countries like Pakistan, where many individuals rely on outdated skills.

The Link Between Unemployment and Radicalization

Unemployment and inadequate education are key factors driving youth towards extremism. The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime’s VE Action Plan notes that a lack of socio-economic opportunities fuels disenfranchisement, pushing individuals towards radicalization and violent terrorism. For example, extremist groups like ISIL offer economic incentives to attract unskilled, unemployed individuals, although actual payments are often negligible.

A 2016 report by the Combating Terrorism Center (CTC) at West Point found that many Daesh foreign fighters were relatively well-educated but previously held low-skilled positions. The involvement of unemployed female youth in terrorism has also been flagged as an emerging trend.

In Pakistan, the disruption caused by AI and automation is becoming a significant factor in radicalization. The Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan provinces have seen unprecedented levels of terrorism-linked violence, exacerbated by economic and educational disparities.

Conclusion

The rise in unemployment and illiteracy in Pakistan, exacerbated by technological advancements and automation, presents significant socio-economic challenges. While there is limited evidence linking unemployment due to AI disruption directly to radicalization, job displacement fuels disenfranchisement and radicalization, particularly among youth. This trend is further aggravated by inadequate educational infrastructure and socio-economic disparities.

The international community must take adequate measures to address these issues, including strict monitoring through mechanisms like the FATF lists and ensuring that any aid to Pakistan is developmental and closely supervised. Additionally, an overhaul of the education system is crucial to prevent radical and extremist teachings in unregulated institutions, thereby securing a more stable and prosperous future for Pakistan.

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