Series Preview: Diamondbacks at Guardians

The gauntlet of August’s schedule continues

The Arizona Diamondbacks and Cleveland Guardians will meet for a three game series starting tonight in Cleveland.

The defending NL champion Diamondbacks are 60-52 with a +45 run differential, seventh in MLB in team wRC+ at 111, third in Baserunning Runs Above Average at 11.3, ninth in Defensive fWAR at 0.5, 13th in starting pitcher FIP at 4.00, and 26th in reliever FIP at 4.37

The Guardians are 67-44 with a +85 run differential, 13th in MLB with a team wRC+ of 102, 18th in Baserunning Runs Above Average at -2.5, sixth in Defensive fWAR at 9, 27th in starting pitcher FIP at 4.61, and first in reliever FIP at 3.20.

I think the above statistics illustrate why the Diamondbacks are such a dangerous team. They are clearly better than the Guardians in all but two categories - defense and relief pitching (and the Diamondbacks added two excellent bullpen arms at the trade deadline). The Guardians have been so dominant in those two categories that they have made up for those deficits, but they also play in a much easier division than Arizona does (though the Guardians have struggled more in division than out of division at several points, especially with only a 12-11 record against Detroit and the White Sox so far).

Matchups:

Game One: Zac Gallen, RHP (3.37 FIP) vs. Logan Allen, LHP (5.45 FIP), 6:40PM EST Monday, August 5th

Analysis: It is never good to look at the prospective starting pitcher matchups for a series and see clear disadvantages for your team in each one. Now, Allen had a 3.86 ERA in Columbus, but accompanied by a very uninspiring 6.61/3.86 K/BB/9. I’m just hoping he provides one of those bob-and-weave Allen performances that gives the Guardians a chance to win against one of the best starting pitchers in the game in Gallen.

Game Two: (Likely) Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP (3.66 FIP) vs. Ben Lively, RHP (4.50 FIP), 6:40PM EST Tuesday, August 6th

Analysis: Lively has been a consistent performer for the Guardians all season and they need him again, as their pitching staff seeks to control Joc Pederson 159 wRC+, Ketel Marte 150 wRC+, Christian Walker 125 wRC+, Jake McCarthy 121 wRC+, Randal Grichuk 111 wRC+, Gabriel Moreno 102 wRC+, Eugenio Suarez 101 wRC+ and Geraldo Perdomo 100 wRC+. The Diamondbacks also now have old friend Josh Bell who has hit well for them in the brief time since he arrived. Meanwhile, the Guardians, who have fewer losses against left-handed starters than any other team in baseball will look to continue that, relying on Lane Thomas, Jose Ramirez, David Fry and Jhonkensy Noel to put in some good work here.

Game Three: Brandon Pfaadt, RHP (3.54 FIP) vs. Carlos Carrasco, RHP (4.79 FIP), 1:10PM EST Wednesday, August 7th

Analysis: Look for a heavy dose of Pfaadt’s changeup here, as well as his cutter and sinker to try to get early outs from the Guardians. Cookie had a great last start against the Orioles and I’d hoped that might be his send-off to the pen, but not quite yet, so let’s hope he can keep it together for another good outing against a great-hitting team. He’ll need to be backed up by the Guardians’ best hitters, Steven Kwan 151 wRC+, Jose Ramirez 139 wRC+, David Fry 136 wRC+, Jhonkensy Noel 131 wRC+, Josh Naylor 127 wRC+, Daniel Schneemann 105 wRC+ and Angel Martinez 100 wRC+.