Morning Report — Why is Trump campaigning in blue states?

In today’s issue:

• What’s Trump up to in Democratic territory before Nov. 5?
• Unpacking the 2024 election logistics
• Hurricane Milton leaves behind at least 14 dead
• Israel weighs options to attack Iran

Former President Trump will campaign in blue states during the final weeks of an election that will be won or lost in swing states. The question this week has been why the Republican nominee wants to eat up valuable time in terrain where Vice President Harris is widely expected to defeat him.

Trump is scheduled to appear Saturday in the vice president’s home state of California, and be in Colorado today. He’ll be in Chicago, Ill., on Tuesday and he plans a rally at the end of the month at New York’s Madison Square Garden. Colorado hasn’t voted for a GOP presidential nominee since George W. Bush in 2004. A Republican White House contender hasn’t captured New York since Ronald Reagan’s landslide in 1984.

So what’s Trump’s reasoning? Answers: gain some coast-to-coast media attention, expand the MAGA base, try to hold down support for Harris, curry favor with donors, lend downballot support to some GOP House candidates, and appear ultra-confident ahead of Nov. 5. 

“The national media’s attention on these large-scale, outside-the-norm settings increases the reach of his message across the country and penetrates in every battleground state,” an unnamed senior Trump campaign adviser told NBC News.

The unorthodox strategy could pay off.

“In 2016, Trump realigned the party to be much more rural and working class. Now in 2024, he is trying to expand his voting base along certain cultural lines that may eat away at traditional Democratic voting blocs,” Republican operative Matthew Bartlett said.

Trump’s team feels increasingly optimistic about his chances of victory, which, in the campaign’s estimation, allows for some risk, another Trump adviser added.

▪ The Hill: Democrats worry Trump is doing well against Harris with likely voters who are male. “It’s ridiculous to have to say this in 2024, but not everyone is ready to vote for a qualified woman to be president of the United States,” said Democratic strategist Jim Manley.

▪ The Hill: Former President Obama made a stern appeal to Black male voters during a Pittsburgh campaign stop for Harris Thursday.  

BOB’S SMART TAKE 

Trump has long wanted to win his native state of New York.

He first mentioned claiming the blue state soon after he launched his first presidential bid in 2015. And he hasn’t stopped.

While campaigning in Uniondale, N.Y., last month, Trump reiterated that the Empire State could end up in the GOP column on Nov. 5. Those remarks raised eyebrows among some Republicans who want Trump to camp out in the seven battleground states.

To be fair, there are a handful of competitive House races in New York that could decide the majority in 2025. However, the focus now should be on the presidential contest.

Trump is scheduled to do a rally at Madison Square Garden on Oct. 27. It will attract a large crowd and media attention. And when it’s over, Trump should turn his attention back to the purple states.

In a race that is essentially tied, every day matters. Trump lost New York by more than 20 points twice, and Harris will win it by a healthy margin. Trump would be making a tactical mistake if he insists on multiple appearances in New York down the home stretch.

3 THINGS TO KNOW TODAY:

▪ In a world reckoning with various armed conflicts, the grassroots Japanese anti-nuclear weapon group Nihon Hidankyo won the Nobel Peace Prize today for “efforts to achieve a world free of nuclear weapons and for demonstrating, through witness testimony, that nuclear weapons must never be used again.”  

▪ The annual U.S. inflation rate ticked lower to 2.4 percent, the government reported Thursday. Meanwhile, the 2025 Social Security cost of living increase adjustment will be 2.5 percent.

▪Tennis great Rafael Nadal, 38, plans to retire from professional tennis next month, he said Thursday in a video. He has won 22 Grand Slam titles in his career and will finish his career with a 112-4 record at Roland-Garros in France.

 LEADING THE DAY

When Morning Report’s Kristina Karisch tried (and failed) to locate her wayward mail-in ballot for Austria’s recent national election, the circumstances inspired her to report, below, what experts are saying about U.S. election logistics. With 25 days until Nov. 5, early and absentee voting are underway in more than 30 states — and ballots are arriving. 

Early and mail voting boomed during the 2020 election due to the pandemic and has remained popular since. During the 2022 midterms, 31.9 percent of voters cast their ballots by mail, and millions are expected to do so again this year. But officials and lawmakers worry U.S. Postal Service delays could prevent thousands of ballots from being counted, after state election officials raised alarms about “exceptionally long delivery times” and voter mail being returned as undeliverable.

Mail ballots are especially critical for a group receiving increased attention from both parties this year: overseas voters. Since the 1960s, the Uniformed and Overseas Citizens Absentee Voting Act has protected the rights of U.S. citizens abroad, including military members and their families, to vote in federal elections.

This year, both parties are looking to rack up as many votes as they can from that crucial bloc. The Democratic National Committee and private donors are spending more than $450,000 to reach swing-state voters abroad. Those efforts work, as a majority American voters abroad cast their ballots for Democratic candidates. 

There were approximately 2.8 million U.S. citizens of voting age abroad in 2022, according to the Federal Voting Assistance Program’s most recent data, and they cast an estimated 94,927 votes in the 2022 midterms. That number was higher in 2020, with 224,139 votes cast out of roughly 2.5 million eligible citizens. 

Democrats Abroad, the party’s official arm abroad, estimates that in 2020, 50 percent of ballots requested from overseas were sent back to battleground states. The organization, which holds a “global primary” and sends delegates to the Democratic National Convention, is “seeing a lot of enthusiasm” among overseas voters this year, International Chair Martha McDevitt-Pugh told Morning Report.

“We got our ballots a couple of weeks ago… but we’re still seeing an increase in interest and demand, and people wanting to request their ballots,” she said. “It’s definitely a lot of interest right now.”

Voters who live abroad register each year in the state they last lived (or the place their parents last lived) and then request a ballot. Some arrive by mail, others are accessed digitally. That electronic absentee voter system made headlines in Montana in September, when a voter living in the United Kingdom noticed the presidential ballots did not include Harris and Walz due to a system error. (The ballots have since been corrected.)

It’s also helping intergalactic voters: American astronauts Butch Wilmore and Sunita Williams, who are stranded on the International Space Station through February, plan to cast their ballots from space.

But in September, Trump falsely claimed that anyone living overseas can get a ballot mailed to them, even if they are not eligible to vote. McDevitt-Pugh said this kind of misinformation, and Republican challenges to overseas ballots in swing states are “an example of trying to intimidate voters and scare them out of voting.” 

“Voters need to know that their vote is going to count,” she said. “How we’re responding to that is with information, giving people confidence in voting, which is what we're already doing, but just being really clear to U.S. citizens abroad that they have a federal right to vote. They're the only voters that have federal protections.”

Storm hazard: Hurricanes Helene and Milton, which battered North Carolina and Florida. Experts caution that the storms could reduce voter turnout and disrupt ballot delivery in swing states with already slim margins. Officials in both states have granted counties greater flexibility in distributing mail-in ballots and changing polling sites for in-person voting, but challenges remain.

“It’s going to be more difficult for people to vote,” Jason M. Roberts, a political science professor at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, told Time magazine. “And, quite frankly, given the challenges these people are facing, voting is probably going to be much farther down on the list of priorities than it otherwise would be.”

Voting rules aren’t uniform for voters with disabilities, and the number of disabled voters who reported difficulties casting ballots increased from 11.4 percent in 2020 to 14 percent in 2022. Complicating factors include varied availability of accommodations, and states issuing restrictive laws for mail voting or criminalizing assisting a person in voting. 

Meanwhile, former President Carter, who just turned 100, “can’t wait to vote for Kamala Harris,” according to his grandson. Early voting in the Peach State starts next week, and even if Carter reaches the end of his life before Nov. 5, his ballot will still count. But those rules vary. 

“They can choose to accept them. They can choose to reject them,” Wendy Underhill, director of elections and redistricting for the National Conference of State Legislatures, told SpectrumNews NY1. “Or states can be silent on this question.”

WHERE AND WHEN

The House will convene a pro forma session at 1 p.m. The Senate will hold a pro forma session at 8:30 a.m. 

The president will receive a hurricane response briefing at 12:30 p.m. and Harris will participate remotely. Biden will speak at 1 p.m. about the federal responses to Hurricanes Helene and Milton. Harris will join remotely. Biden will receive the President’s Daily Brief at 2:30 p.m. 

First lady Jill Biden will travel to Yuma, Ariz., to participate in a political event at 6:15 p.m. local time, then fly to Phoenix.

Candidate schedules this week: Harris begins her day in Arizona, in which early voting has begun. Trump todaywill headline a 1 p.m. rally in Aurora, Colo., and he’ll campaign tonight in Reno, Nev. On Saturday, the former president will challenge Harris in her home state with an appearance in Coachella, Calif. Trump will appear Sunday in Prescott Valley, Colo. Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz today will campaign in Michigan’s Macomb County at 11 a.m. Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) will campaign Saturday in Johnstown, Pa., and in Reading, Pa.  

ZOOM IN

STORMY AFTERMATH: Hurricane Milton, hard on the heels of Hurricane Helene, pummeled Floridians with high winds, tornadoes, power outages, mammoth amounts of rain and flooding. At least 14 people were killed. 

The Hill: Why tornadoes form within hurricanes — and how climate change could help make it more common.

The two hurricanes also scramble politics in the final stretch of the Trump-Harris contest because of twin spotlights on the Biden administration’s response and recovery efforts and misinformation promoted by some Republicans, including the former president and his running mate, Sen. JD Vance of Ohio, writes The Hill’s Niall Stanage. 

MORE IN POLITICS

SENATE CANDIDATES this cycle are largely steering clear of the debate stage, in some cases avoiding it altogether, marking a major change from past years as campaigns question the debates' importance. For years, it was common for top Senate races to feature multiple debates. That is far from the case this year, with Ohio serving as a prime example, writes The Hill’s Al Weaver. Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) and Republican Bernie Moreno are unlikely to participate in any debates this fall. Brown and former Rep. Jim Renacci (R-Ohio) took part in three in 2018.  

“Debates below the presidential level have only rarely mattered, and they matter even less today,” said Joshua Karp, a Democratic operative. “In the past, debates have offered an opportunity to break through the noise and maybe have an outstanding moment on an important issue, but two can play at that game and the other side gets to talk too in every debate.”

One exception: Maryland’s Prince George's County Executive Angela Alsobrooks (D) and former Gov. Larry Hogan (R) on Thursday debated the issue of abortion and whether the deep blue state would be best represented by a Democrat or an anti-Trump Republican.

2024 ELECTION ROUNDUP:

Harris on Thursday worked to court Latino voters with a Las Vegas town hall hosted by Univision, an American Spanish-language network, fielding questions on immigration, the economy, and reproductive rights. Latino voters are a critical bloc that she is struggling with compared to other Democrats in recent cycles.

Trump on Thursday bashed the city of Detroit as a “mess” and called it a developing area during a speech at the Detroit Economic Club where he also said he would make car loan interests fully tax deductible.

RIP: Ethel Kennedy, widow of the late Sen. Robert F. Kennedy, died Thursday at 96 after suffering a stroke. … Former Sen. Tim Johnson (R-S.D.), 77, who retired from the Senate in 2015, died Tuesday night from complications of a recent stroke.

OpenAI has seen continued attempts by cybercriminals to use its artificial intelligence (AI) models for fake content aimed at interfering with this year’s elections.

Trump’s controversial and sometimes puzzling agenda to reshape schools is framing this year’s education debate, as Harris talks more about Trump’s ideas than her own.

Meet the Evangelicals calling for “spiritual warfare” to elect Trump. Lance Wallnau and other leaders of the New Apostolic Reformation believe that Democrats represent the “powers of darkness” and see Trump as an anointed figure.

James Carville, who helped boost an Arkansas governor to the Oval Office in 1992, is famously superstitious. “The only thing I feel is, the election is coming Nov. 5. I’m scared to death,” he told MSNBC’s “The Beat with Ari Melber.” “I’m very, very concerned and very scared.” 

Harris faces new battles with the expanding Middle East conflict.

ELSEWHERE

ISRAELI FORCES FIRED at three United Nations positions in the south of Lebanon over the past 24 hours, the U.N. said Thursday, dramatically escalating a standoff between international peacekeepers and advancing Israeli ground troops (The Washington Post). 

“For now, we are staying,” a U.N. official told the Post on Thursday. “But this is bad.”

An Israeli strike late on Thursday in Beirut killed 22 people and injured more than 100, Lebanese authorities said. The target was a senior Hezbollah official who survived (Reuters).

Meanwhile, Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu moved closer to an understanding on the scope of Israel's planned retaliation against Iran during their call on Wednesday, Axios reports. The Biden administration accepts that Israel will soon launch a major attack on Iran in response to Tehran’s recent ballistic missile attack, but U.S. officials fear that strikes on certain targets could dramatically escalate the regional war.

Some Israeli officials are pushing for damaging strikes on Tehran’s nuclear facilities or oil infrastructure, and Iran has warned it would respond with devastating hits on Israel’s civilian infrastructure. Israel’s security Cabinet met Thursday to discuss the planned attack, but the results of the meeting were not released (The New York Times).

Using secret diplomatic backchannels, Iran is threatening to target oil-rich Arab Gulf states and other American allies in the Middle East if their territories or airspace are used for an attack on Iran, The Wall Street Journal reports.

The New York Times: U.N. investigators on Thursday accused Israel of engaging in “relentless and deliberate attacks” on health care facilities, medical workers and wounded civilians in Gaza and said the actions amounted to war crimes and extermination, a crime against humanity.

CONGRESS

Senate conservatives are trying to rein in their leadership with reforms that would give them more control over the chamber in an effort to exert the same influence that the House Freedom Caucus has over Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.). Republican senators are planning to have a wide-ranging discussion in a few weeks over how to manage a possible Senate GOP majority. Senate Republican Conference Chair John Barrasso (Wyo.) has scheduled the conference discussion and leadership election for Nov. 14. Senate Steering Committee Chair Mike Lee (Utah) spoke with The Hill’s Alexander Bolton about the internal battle. 

Lee said “anything that consolidates power in one person relative to floor strategy, messaging, committee assignments” and fundraising could be discussed for possible reform before the Senate Republican leadership election next month.

OPINION 

■ A small-c conservative case for Harris, by Joe Klein, guest essayist, The New York Times.

■ Harris should promise to elevate the FEMA head to the Cabinet, by Dylan Gyauch-Lewis, opinion contributor, The Hill.

THE CLOSER 

And finally … ???????????? Congratulations to this week’s Morning Report Quiz winners! Savvy readers were very familiar with presidential candidates on late-night television.

Here’s who aced our four puzzle questions: Alexi Drucker, Peter Sprofera, Dalton Temple, Pam Manges, Bill Moore, Margaret Ramos, Stan Wasser, Larry Mason, Rick Schmidtke, Lynn Gardner, Edward Webster, Carmine Petracca, Tim Burrack, Mark Roeddiger, Paul Quillen, John van Santen, Barbara Bryant, Robert Bradley, Steve Jenningz, Savannah Petracca, John Trombetti, Luther Berg, Harry Strulovici, Steve James, Carol Webster and Lou Tisler.

They knew that John F. Kennedy was the first presidential candidate to appear on late-night (a 1960 sit-down on “The Jack Paar Show”).

“Tonight Show” host Jimmy Fallon made headlines in 2016 after ruffling candidate Trump’s hair as they chatted.

During a Tuesday appearance on “The Late Show,” Harris cracked open a Miller High Life beer with host Stephen Colbert.

Following decades of mostly stoic candidate interviews on talk shows, Democratic presidential nominee Bill Clinton in 1992 broke the mold by playing a saxophone rendition of “Heartbreak Hotel" (wearing sunglasses) on “The Arsenio Hall Show.”

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