WATCH: Israel could have prevented Oct. 7 by monitoring Hamas Telegram channels more closely, report claims

JERUSALEM – A recently published report from an Israeli think tank again highlights some of the intelligence failures, which led to the scale of the Hamas onslaughts against southern Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, being far worse than it ought to have been, given the information about the planned attack was publicly available, if the resources had been directed to analyze and read it.

Lt. Col. (res.) Jonathan Dahoah-Halevi of the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs, or JCFA, revealed a series of alarming posts that appeared on a Hamas-affiliated Telegram channel the night before the Oct. 7 massacre. His analysis suggests that different preparedness measures might have been possible had this intelligence been monitored and analyzed in real time, according to Israel Hayom.

כך הסתיר חמאס מישראל את היערכות אלפי הלוחמים ערב הפלישה בשבעה באוקטובר

ב-6 באוקטובר 2023 ערכו גדודי אל-קודס, הזרוע הצבאית של הג’יהאד האיסלאמי, מצעד צבאי לציון יום השנה להקמת הארגון. בצעדה השתתפו גם לוחמים מזרועות צבאיות של ארגונים אחרים, ובהם גדודי אל-קסאם. המצעד הצבאי נמשך עד… pic.twitter.com/U0RCXFNLSL

— Jonathan D. Halevi (@jdhalevi) January 5, 2025

“On October 6, 2023, the Al-Quds Brigades, the military arm of the Islamic Jihad, held a military parade to mark the anniversary of the establishment of the organization. Fighters from military arms of other organizations also participated in the march, including the Al-Qassam Brigades. The military parade continued until 6:20 in the evening,” Halevi wrote on X.

Halevi went on to explain that the Gaza Interior Ministry, which is responsible for all the security mechanisms, mobilized all security forces including the “national security, the engineering, the traffic police, the civil defense, the special police force and the special police unit “Sahm” (سهم) to secure Islamic Jihad’s military parade, which Hamas apparently used to organize the forces in preparation for the Oct. 7 attack,” which commenced approximately 12 hours afterward.

At the center of Dahoah-Halevi’s analysis is the figure of Maam Rashid al-Masri, also known as “Abu Hafs.” Al-Masri, a Hamas Nukhba terrorist, managed the Telegram channel named “Military Tactics” and co-founded the “Al-Qassam Brigades Dispatch” channel.

And this was not all. According to Halevi, the infiltration of some 6,000 Hamas fighters was preceded by explicit Telegram warnings, which contained more than simply overt threats against Israel. Rather, it was a “repository of detailed military instruction materials encompassing combat methodology, concealment techniques, and explosives handling,” reported the outlet.

The researcher’s findings also show there were warning signs about Hamas’ actual intentions in September 2023, which discussed plans to attack the communities abutting the border fence. In fact, a direct threat emanated on Sept. 18, calling on them to “flee and leave before it is too late.”

“We will turn your skulls into a bridge over which we will cross to Jerusalem and al-Aqsa [mosque],” it added. “You are deluding yourselves about your weak army and crumbling government. Nothing will help you except escape. Woe to you from our coming hours [our actions in the near future] which will bring you what no eye has seen and no ear has heard. The revolutionary youth, Gaza Strip.”

Several more posts of escalating threat were posted throughout September, with one suggesting that by Sept. 21, the die was already cast, the decision had been made and the Gaza border area would be made “uninhabitable.”

Halevi’s research only goes up to the end of September, although no doubt there will be further work done on the messages missed and the eye-witness testimony ignored up to and including Oct. 7, when army spotters saw the scale of the Hamas attack, sending urgent messages up the chain of command.

It seems fanciful there will not be a full public inquiry into the war and the glaring intelligence failures, which immediately preceded it, despite the best efforts of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu fighting tooth and nail to prevent the establishment of one, while there is still fighting in Gaza, and there is a precarious ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon.