NOAA forecast: Atlantic hurricane season above average in 2025
NOAA’s forecast for the Atlantic hurricane season
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has released its official forecast for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. The season begins June 1 and runs through November 30. NOAA, the parent agency of the National Hurricane Center, is forecasting 13-19 total named storms (this includes both tropical storms and hurricanes), 6-10 hurricanes and 3-5 major hurricanes. Major hurricanes are those that reach category 3, 4 or 5.
NOAA is also forecasting a 30% chance for a near-average season, a 60% chance of an above-average season and only a 10% chance of a below-average season. An average hurricane season in the Atlantic basin (according to the 30-year average from 1991-2020) is 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
Factors in the Atlantic hurricane season prediction
NOAA considers a number of factors when making their seasonal predictions. But the main factors in this outlook are water temperature, wind shear and the West African monsoon.
Water temperature
Tropical cyclones are considered “warm core” low-pressure systems, meaning they develop over warm ocean water. For a tropical cyclone, ocean water should be at least 80 degrees Fahrenheit (26.6 C). (Cyclone is another word for low pressure. Tropical cyclone is a catch-all phrase for any tropical low pressure like a tropical storm or hurricane.) Water temperatures across the Atlantic basin are warmer than average, which will aid in the development of tropical cyclones.
Wind shear/ENSO phase
El Niño Southern Oscillation, also called ENSO, is a global climate pattern than influences weather around the world, including tropical weather. The previous ENSO phase was the cool phase, La Niña. This phase is when the waters of the tropical Pacific Ocean are cooler than average. That is no longer the case. According to NOAA and the Climate Prediction Center, the ENSO phased has shifted to neutral. And there’s a 74% chance it remains so through June, July and August, which is the first half of hurricane season in the Atlantic.
ENSO impacts tropical weather most when it’s either in the cool phase (La Niña) or warm phase (El Niño). La Niña favors tropical development in the Atlantic due to less wind shear in this development zone, while El Niño supports less development in the Atlantic due to more wind shear. Wind shear is the change in wind speed and/or direction with height in the atmosphere. Strong wind shear tears apart or weakens developing tropical systems.
With ENSO-Neutral, the influences on the tropics aren’t as predictable, leading to the importance of other climate patterns and weather features. These other climate patterns and features don’t often provide a longer-term prediction like El Niño or La Niña, however. Read more about this ENSO-Neutral phase here. Even with the uncertainty with how an ENSO-Neutral phase will directly impact hurricane season, NOAA is expecting weaker wind shear, which could aid in tropical development.
West African monsoon
NOAA forecasters expect the West African monsoon season to be active. This is an important part of tropical forecasting, as the storms from the West African monsoon move east to west. As the remnant monsoon storms emerge over the Atlantic Ocean, they can become tropical waves. And these waves can then develop into tropical cyclones if conditions – water temperatures and wind shear – are favorable for development. The West African monsoon season peaks from June through September. And that coincides with the start of hurricane season through its peak in early September. So a more active monsoon season paired with the above-mentioned warm water and possible low wind shear all lean toward the potential for more tropical development.
Other tools for the Atlantic hurricane season
The National Hurricane Center is also working to improve not only hurricane forecasts but their communication to the public. In their official press release they say those improvements hope to come in the form of:
- NOAA’s model, the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System, will undergo an upgrade that is expected to result in another 5% improvement of tracking and intensity forecasts that will help forecasters provide more accurate watches and warnings.
- The National Hurricane Center and Central Pacific Hurricane Center will be able to issue tropical cyclone advisory products up to 72 hours before the arrival of storm surge or tropical-storm-force winds on land, giving communities more time to prepare.
- And NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center’s Global Tropical Hazards Outlook, which provides advance notice of potential tropical cyclone risks, has been extended from two weeks to three weeks, to provide additional time for preparation and response.
Better communication
The National Hurricane Center will also provide their products in Spanish in addition to English to get their forecasts to as many people as possible. Another way it is hoping to better communicate risks is by using a version of the forecast cone that overlays inland watches and warnings on the cone. The forecast cone is simply a forecast of where the center of the storm will go. Impacts can, and often are, felt outside the forecast cone, and with the inland advisories on the cone, the NHC hopes this will help more people understand their risk.
Bottom Line: NOAA has released its forecast for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. It calls for an above-average hurricane season. Get the details here.
Read more: See the Atlantic hurricanes name list for 2025
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