How did the Australian pollsters go?

Now we have a final result for the Australian election, we can look at how the Australian pollsters did.

This shows the primary and then TPP vote for each pollsters’s final pre-election poll.

The final TPP result of 55.2% to 44.8% was greater than all the polls. Four had it 53 to 47, so were out by 2.2% only. Those most out on the TPP were Ipsos followed by Freshwater and Demos.

In terms of the primary vote, YouGov were closest to the Coalition at 31.4% to 31.8%. The most out went to Freshwater who had them 5.2% too high, and then Resolve at 3.2%.

For the ALP, Redbridge were only 0.6% out and Ipsos had them a massive 6.6% too low.

Four pollsters got the Greens almost spot on. The furthest out was YouGov at 2.4%.

And One Nation had Roy Morgan get them almost spot on, while Essential had them 3.6% too low.

If we look at how many results were within the margin of error for their sample size we have:

1. Roy Morgan 6/6
2. Newspoll, Redbridge 5/6
3. Spectre, Resolve 3/6
4. Ipsos, Freshwater, Demos, Essential 2/6
5. YouGov 1/6

And the average error for each pollster was:

1. Redbridge 1.5%
2. Roy Morgan 1.7%
3. Newspoll 1.9%
4. Demos 2.3%
5. resolve 2.3%
6. YouGov 2.4%
7. Spectre 2.6%
8. Essential 2.6%
9. Freshwater 2.7%
10. Ipsos 3.0%

As always you should never judge a pollster off just one poll. And all pollsters did get it right that Labor would win – but they all underestimated the degree.

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