This weather pattern is now 'likely' this winter

AUSTIN (KXAN) -- Now that we've firmly settled into an ENSO Neutral pattern, which is neither El Niño or La Niña, and we're almost beyond the "Spring predictability barrier" which makes ENSO forecasting less accurate, we're getting more confidence on what to expect this winter.

For the first time this year since the Climate Prediction Center have forecasted the phases of ENSO, winter 2025-2026 is now likely to be ENSO Neutral. Previous outlooks had ENSO Neutral in the plurality, with no phase of ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) over the 50% mark for December-February, until now.

The latest ENSO forecast shows odds of ENSO Neutral for meteorological winter at 51%, La Niña winter at 37% and El Niño winter at 12%. Meteorological winter is December through February.

Compared to the May outlook, this latest outlook marked a 3% increase in the odds of ENSO Neutral for this upcoming winter and a 2% decrease in odds of La Niña along with a 1% drop in the odds of El Niño this winter.

Ruling out El Niño

While odds of El Niño are at 12% for this coming winter means there's still a chance, realistically speaking we can basically rule out an El Niño winter.

Remember, what El Niño winters typically bring nationwide; wet weather in the southern states, warm weather in the Pacific Northwest and drier winters in the southeastern U.S. and parts of the Midwest.

One in three chance of La Niña this winter

Odds of 37% means there's roughly a 1 in 3 chance of our second La Niña winter in a row. Remember what La Niña winters typically bring nationwide; warmer and drier weather for the southern states, including much of Texas, wetter weather for the Pacific Northwest and Great Lakes region and a colder winter in the upper Midwest.

What would an ENSO Neutral winter mean?

ENSO Neutral Winter would not necessarily mean an "average" winter, it just means that the waters in the Pacific Ocean that define the phase of ENSO won't have an impact on our winter. Instead, we'll be looking at other phases of weather patterns that are likely harder to nail down this far out from winter. Part of the reason ENSO can be so helpful for forecasting is the solid correlation between ENSO's phase and the weather patterns above. Without El Niño or La Niña in place for winter, different patterns are allowed to take center stage.

How reliable are ENSO forecasts this far out?

I mentioned the "Spring Reliability Barrier" at the top of this article. That's because ENSO forecasts are typically not very reliable before we get past spring.

NOAA put together this chart regarding the accuracy of ENSO forecasts for the late fall into winter if a given month is used to input a forecast. You can see that forecast accuracy climbs above 50% once you get past meteorological spring (March-May) and generally rises as you go through summer and into fall.

All this comes together to mean that the winter ENSO outlook isn't yet set in stone, but we're now in the time of year where predictions for the upcoming colder months typically work out correctly.