Southern California job creation runs 62% below normal
If you want a hint why Southern Californians feel antsy about their finances, consider that local job growth is 62% slower than what’s been typically seen in the post-Great Recession era.
My trusty spreadsheet, filled with state job figures, found 8 million people at work in May in Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside and San Bernardino counties. That’s up 38,200 in the past 12 months, but down from 50,400 additions in the previous year and a median 101,300 annual pace since 2010.
Local bosses are hiring slowly as they deal with numerous challenges, including high financing costs, skittish consumers and unorthodox economic policies from the Trump administration.
Consider the staffing cooldown on a percentage basis. The past year’s 0.5% expansion is just below the 0.6% increase of the previous 12 months, but it’s far from the 1.4% annual pace of the last 15 years.
Now, there was some good news in the local employment numbers. The one-month growth of 22,600 jobs was the best of the year. Still, May has had a median 24,200 workers added since 2010.
The four-county unemployment rate was 4.9% in May, up a sliver from 4.8% in both the previous month and a year earlier. This is low joblessness as the median monthly local jobless rate since 2010 is 5.8%.
There were 440,600 Southern Californians counted as officially out of work. That’s up 10,600 in a month and up 18,200 in a year. Yet the jobless count is 11% below the 494,700 median since 2010.
One reason the unemployment has moderated is that the supply of workers hasn’t kept pace with job creation. Consider Southern California’s workforce, one measure of the labor pool. Locally, it has grown 8% over the past 15 years, compared to a 16% rise in employment.
Regional differences
Here’s how the job market performed in the region’s key metropolitan areas in May …
Los Angeles County: 4.61 million workers, after adding 21,800 in 12 months vs. a 43,900 annual pace since 2010. For the month, there was an increase of 13,800 compared with the historical 13,000 additions. Unemployment? 5.4% vs. 5.1% a month earlier, 6.1% a year ago and 6.1% median since 2010.
Orange County: 1.7 million workers, after adding 7,000 in 12 months, vs. 21,100 annual pace since 2010. For the month, there was a 5,700 increase compared with the historical 6,600 additions. Unemployment? 3.6% vs. 3.7% a month earlier, 4.1% a year ago and 4.3% median since 2010.
Inland Empire: 1.71 million workers, after adding 9,400 in 12 months vs. 36,300 annual pace since 2010. For the month, there was a 3,100 increase compared with the historical 3,500 additions. Unemployment? 4.8% vs. 4.9% a month earlier, 5.4% a year ago and 6.2% median since 2010.
Jonathan Lansner is the business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at jlansner@scng.com