'Horrible, awful, terrible': CNN's data guru can't believe how unpopular Musk is
Elon Musk announced over the weekend that he's forming a third political party after falling out with Donald Trump, but CNN's Harry Enten said his chances of success are capped by his deep personal unpopularity.
The president's former "first buddy" introduced the America Party on his X platform as an alternative to what he calls a "one-party system," which Trump quickly dismissed as "ridiculous." Enten told "CNN News Central" that polling seems to agree that Musk's plan is "off the rails."
"This entire thing makes very little sense to me," Enten said. "It makes about as much sense as selling sand in the desert. What are we talking about here? What is the size of Elon Musk's base? Well, I calculate it to be about 4 percent, just 4 percent – one, two three, 4 percent of all voters. What is that base made up of? Well, it's those who view Elon Musk favorably and the GOP unfavorably, [and] we're talking just about 4 percent of all voters out there, because it turns out most of the people who like Elon Musk already like the GOP already."
"That is, they already have a party for them," Enten added. "In my mind, there is just no base for Elon Musk."
Ross Perot had the most recent success by any third-party candidate, dating back to more than 30 years ago. Enten said his popularity dwarfs the tech mogul's favorability.
"We'll go all the way back in the time machine to 1992, and we will note Americans with an unfavorable view, i.e., essentially, that Musk starts off with far more against him than Ross Perot ever did," Enten said. "Americans with an unfavorable view of Ross Perot was only 14 percent back in 1992. Now the vast majority of Americans are already against Elon Musk, 58 percent, so what we're essentially saying here is that Elon Musk is going to go into an electorate that already dislikes him, is already against him, while there were far more people who are open to the idea of a Ross Perot third-party or independent candidacy as compared to an Elon Musk third party in which the vast majority of Americans have already sided against the man from Tesla."
Musk has threatened to back congressional candidates in next year's midterms to challenge MAGA Republicans, but Enten said the track record for third-party candidates in those races is just dismal.
"Horrible, awful, terrible, terrible, terrible," Enten said. "What are we talking about here? All right, elected to Congress from a third party since 1970 – just 0.2 percent of all winners of all winners were either third party, independent or write-in. We're only talking about 24 out of over 13,000 winners. The bottom line is, third-party independents, they just don't succeed. Donald Trump is right when he's talking about the fact that third parties, simply put, don't work."
However, Musk's 4 percent share of the electorate could still play a key role in the next two elections, even if none of his candidates actually win a race.
"Ralph Nader in 2000, as we were talking about," Enten said. "[Musk] could spoil it for the GOP, but he probably can't win it himself."
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