Gold still has room to run in 2026, even after a record-setting year

• Gold broke through $4,500 an ounce in 2025 as the metal's rally gathered historic momentum.
• A weaker dollar, policy uncertainty, and central bank demand are driving a structural shift in gold markets.
• Banks and strategists say gold's bull run may extend into 2026 even without a major crisis.

Gold is finishing 2025 at all-time highs, and the momentum is set to extend into 2026.

The spot gold price surged past $4,500 per troy ounce for the first time on Wednesday in Asia trading and is trading around $4,490 per ounce. The yellow metal is up more than 70% so far in its best year since 1979.

Gold could stay strong because the rally drivers are structural, not purely reactive, according to analysts.

"Gold doesn't need a crisis to rise in 2026. It simply needs the world to behave the way it has been: elevated debt, policy uncertainty, fragile alliances, and a dollar that no longer dominates as it once did," wrote Farah Mourad, a market analyst at IG, a trading platform.

"In that environment, gold doesn't chase fear — it absorbs it," Mourad added.

IG did not provide a price forecast but noted that major banks expect gold to trade in the $4,500 to $4,700 per ounce range next year, with potential upside toward $5,000 if macro conditions persist.

Monetary policy could provide additional support. With inflation proving sticky and growth uneven, markets increasingly expect interest rates to drift lower over time.

That matters for gold, which tends to perform best when real yields fall, and the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets declines.

There are, of course, risks. A stronger-than-expected rebound in the US dollar or a sustained shift back toward risk-on sentiment could slow gold's advance.

But investor positioning in gold remains relatively balanced compared with previous peaks, suggesting the trade is not yet overcrowded, Mourad wrote.

That perspective aligns with forecasts from major banks.

"We see gold prices hitting more record highs in 2026," wrote Ewa Manthey, a commodities strategist at ING, earlier this month.

Factors that could extend gold's bull run include President Donald Trump's likely choice of a next Fed chair inclined to push for lower interest rates, she wrote.

She added that gold is likely to find support on pullbacks.

"We expect the downside to be limited as any weakness will likely attract renewed interest from both retail and institutional buyers," Manthey added.

Wall Street giant Goldman Sachs predicts that gold prices will climb to $4,900 per ounce by December 2026.

Gold's surge this year has contributed to gains in other precious metals as well.

Spot silver prices have also hit record highs this year and are trading about 147% higher year-to-date at around $72 per ounce.

Meanwhile, spot platinum has also hit an all-time high and is up about 159% this year, trading around $2,342 per ounce.