Senate Republican hit with stunningly low odds to survive bitter primary

A sitting Senate Republican in a red state has staggeringly low odds of even making it out of a primary next year, according to online traders.

Polymarket traders believe MAGA Texas Attorney General Paxton is most likely to win the Republican primary over Sen. John Cornyn, with the most recent estimates putting Paxton at a 63% probability. Cornyn lags Paxton with just a 28% probability, meaning fewer than one in three traders think he'll survive what's already become a bitter showdown.

Cornyn's odds have plummeted in just a month.

On Nov. 23, traders gave him about a 40% chance to win the primary election, with Paxton at 44%

Meanwhile, traders give Rep. Wesley Hunt a 10% chance to come out of the race.

Newsweek noted that despite the plummeting odds, polls are less rosy for Paxton.

According to the poll by co/efficient, Cornyn held a narrow lead earlier this month with 28 percent support over Paxton's 27 percent and Hunt's 19 percent. A whopping 26 percent were undecided.