Tesla broadcasts downbeat sales estimates in unusual move

(Bloomberg/Craig Trudell) — Tesla Inc. took the unusual step of publishing a series of sales estimates indicating the outlook for its vehicle deliveries may be lower than many investors were expecting.

The carmaker posted estimates to its website showing analysts on average expect the company to deliver 422,850 cars in the fourth quarter, down 15% from a year earlier. That compares with a Bloomberg-compiled average of 440,907 vehicles, an 11% drop.

While Tesla’s investor relations team has compiled sales estimates and shared averages selectively with analysts and investors for years, the company hasn’t published the figures in the past.

“This is highly unusual,” Gary Black, co-founder of Future Fund Advisors, wrote on X. “Obviously, someone at TSLA wanted the IR-derived consensus to be distributed as widely as possible,” he added, speculating that Tesla’s deliveries are likely to be in the range of 420,000 vehicles.

Tesla is on course for its second consecutive drop in annual vehicle sales, with the company compiling an average estimate for 1.6 million deliveries, down more than 8% from a year earlier. The carmaker’s estimates for the next three years are also lower than averages compiled by Bloomberg.

The company’s shares fell as much as 1.3% on Tuesday before erasing the decline.

Tesla’s sales plunged early in the year as the company retooled production lines at each of its assembly plants for the redesigned Model Y, its most popular vehicle. That period also coincided with Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk playing a polarizing role in the Trump administration.

Deliveries jumped to a record in the third quarter, when US consumers rushed to buy electric vehicles before $7,500 federal tax credits ceased at the end of September. Tesla partially offset the loss of those incentives at the beginning of the current quarter by rolling out stripped-down versions of the Model Y sport utility vehicle and Model 3 sedan each priced at under $40,000.

Tesla’s stock is poised to end the year higher despite its vehicle sales slump. The shares were up 14% through Monday’s close, trailing the 17% rise in the S&P 500 Index.

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