Trump or other administration officials have said that the operation was to remove an indicted narco-terrorist and not the beginning of a nation-building exercise; that the U.S. is “running” Venezuela and that military occupation is an option; that the U.S. will oversee economic recuperation and the rebuilding of infrastructure; that U.S. access to oil is a priority; and that, contrary to the reality, the leader of the legitimately elected opposition, Maria Corina Machado, has no support or respect among Venezuelans.
Trump has also said that the U.S. would work toward a transition, though no timeline was specified, and that until then, it would work with the regime. The dictatorship has been decapitated, but it continues its repressive rule. That arrangement is unsustainable because the regime lacks legitimacy and credibility. The people still in charge in Venezuela—acting president Delcy Rodríguez, Minister of Interior Diosdado Cabello, and Minister of Defense Vladimir Padrino López—are all true believers in socialism and have been key members of the regime’s apparatus of brutal repression.
We should expect the regime to do as little as possible to comply with Washington’s demands and as much as possible to remain in power. To the extent that a transition to democracy does come closer to becoming a reality, we should not expect that Cabello or Padrino López—who have the guns, are indicted by the U.S., and have blood on their hands—will peacefully wait for that to happen. The situation is unstable, unpredictable, and not ideal for foreign investment or growth.
A far better path is for the U.S. to work with Machado and her team on a transition. Unlike any other political leaders, they enjoy overwhelming support and legitimacy. They also have well thought-out plans for the transition and a comprehensive reform agenda, including privatizing the oil monopoly, that would go a long way in effectively accomplishing major U.S. foreign policy goals.
Venezuela: The US Should Work with Machado on a Transition
The capture and removal of dictator Nicolás Maduro was a cause for celebration by all those who have hoped for an end to the tyranny that has made Venezuela one of the least free countries in the world. But the professionalism with which the military operation was planned and executed stands in contrast to the way its aftermath has been handled, with conflicting messaging from the administration that has left many surprised or disillusioned and raises more questions than it answers.