The Geography Of ISKP Terrorism In South Asia – OpEd
The 19th January attack in Kabul on a Chinese restaurant resulted in death of 7 people. The attack was claimed by Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP), a stark reminder that the group maintains operational mobility in the region. The attack has reignited global concerns about ISKP’s operational presence, the group’s intent, and the regional implications of its expanding reach. Competing narratives have surfaced right after the attack, with a large number of social media accounts pointing toward Pakistan’s involvement in the attack. The pattern of the blame game is not new; states often resort to shifting blame toward rival states in the aftermath of such attacks.
In the present environment of chaos, certain developments help make precise predictions about who is behind the attack and who remains the “beneficiary” in the present political milieu inside Afghanistan. According to the public claim of ISKP, the suicide bomber waited for nearly thirty minutes outside the restaurant before blowing itself. The logic suggests that conducting such a sophisticated attack requires accurate surveillance that is generally impossible without the facilitation of locals. Also, selecting a target and locating sources close to the target site while evading detection hints towards the presence of deeply entrenched infrastructure that could have coordinated the complete plot.
A month before the attack, the Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team report concluded that ISKP and other terrorist groups retain a permissive presence in Afghanistan. The report is the outcome of detailed Security Council committee briefings where countries share their apprehensions and provide intelligence input. During the latest sessions of Security Committee Briefings on the terrorism threat, the Russian representative to the UN, Vassily Nebenzia, shared Russia’s concerns about the presence of terrorist groups. Similar apprehensions were shared by Chair of the Session, Sandra Jensen Landi, the Denmark representative, stated that the presence of recruitment networks pose critical danger to the security and stability of the entire region. Interestingly, none of the participants shared apprehension about security-related developments in Pakistan.
The commentaries at UN Security Briefings were followed by a detailed report converging on the agreement about the presence of terrorist safe havens. By using safe havens, the terrorist groups plan high-profile attacks, and this remains contingent on the presence of all requisite sources, like bomb makers, handlers, and facilitators at one place. In a region where border management is strictly controlled and adjoining areas are tightly monitored, such elements cannot be dispersed or coordinated from across the border. In this case, it remains plausible to argue that the attack was coordinated, lodged, and later amplified from one place.
Besides the UN findings, a plethora of open-source evidence indicates that, given increasing pressure on ISIS in Syria, the group has started relocation toward South Asia. These reports mention that increased attacks by ISIS in the adjoining regions is the indication of the presence of strongholds of the group in parts of Northern Afghanistan. A report of the European Union Institute for Security Studies mentions that since large stretches of land remain out of the control of the Afghan regime, these areas provide a safe place for terrorist movement.
Another dimension that can help assess the traces of the Kabul attack is the internal political dynamics of Afghanistan. Contrary to the past, a clear divide now seems visible in the Afghan ruling elite. Though diverging views exist about the ongoing rift, many consider that two distinct factions are struggling to take hold of the economics and the security. The attack on the Chinese restaurant is also being viewed in the same context, suggesting a covert plan of the security faction against the other group that supposedly enjoys close linkages with Chinese companies. In this context, ISKP’s presence seems to serve multiple purposes: a pressure tool, a spoiler, and an easy explanation for the regime’s security failure.
From a regional perspective, the presence of such groups threatens security and stability. The presence of the group on Pakistan’s western side poses a critical danger of spillover. Although Pakistan has maintained a strict check on border management, security analysts consider that actions against the group remain a prerequisite. On Pakistan’s part, the country has shrunk the space for ISKP. The recent arrest of Sultan Aziz Azzam suggests that Pakistan has practically manifested zero tolerance for terrorist groups. Pakistan’s actions against the group have also been acknowledged by major capitals. Analysts believe that the acknowledgement of Pakistan’s counter terrorism efforts are outcome of the country’s concrete actions against terrorist groups, irrespective of their affiliation.
The analysis presented above suggests that the Kabul attack must not be viewed as an isolated incident of terrorism. If mapped in light of the UN assessments, open source reports, and both regional and Afghan political dynamics, the traces appear linked with the rogue socio-political infrastructure that has remained prevalent in post 2021 Afghanistan. The attempts to externalize blame thus appear to be a coordinated effort to deflect the growing international pressure on the Afghan regime.