CMHC outlook sees home sales picking up in 2026 but will remain subdued

The country’s national housing agency says it expects home sales to pick up this year, though demand is forecast to remain below historical averages as the economy grows slowly.

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. says the pickup in housing demand will be led by Ontario and B.C., where markets are expected to rebound after some of their weakest sales in decades.

The agency’s baseline forecast is calling for 489,000 home sales for 2026 with an average price of $698,000, up from 470,000 homes sold in 2025 at an average price of $680,000.

Housing starts are forecast at 247,000 for 2026, down from 259,000 in 2025 as developers face high construction costs, weaker demand and rising inventories of unsold units.

CMHC notes that downside risks to its outlook are more likely than upside and cautioned that if Canada slips into a mild recession this year, the results would reflect weaker demand.

In that alternative scenario, CMHC predicts 480,000 homes sold and an average price of $693,000 for 2026. Housing starts in the alternative scenario are forecast at 243,000 for the year.