‘Super’ El Niño Threat Looms in 2026, Expert Warns of Extreme Weather (Video)

El Niño has a mythical status among surfers, skiers, and weather enthusiasts.

Nearly every year, folks speculate – will the weather phenomenon happen? What will it look like? And for surfers, what will it entail in terms of waves.

Well, according to one weather forecaster, 2026 is shaping up to be a big one. Not just a regular El Niño, but a “super” one. Here’s David Schlotthauer below.

For context, is a Schlotthauer is a “30-year-old professional weather forecaster who focuses on the weather across the United States. I love tracking tropical systems, winter storms, and severe weather all season long. So I'm here sharing my passion with you, and my love to save lives.”

And in his latest video, he’s claiming: “A powerful Super El Niño is on the horizon, and it could bring extreme weather changes across the globe this fall & winter. From intense heat waves, dangerous flooding, and major disruptions to the hurricane season, this episode breaks down what you need to know — fast.”

Schlotthauer breaks down the weather event: “Let’s take a look at our climate models, because they strongly indicate that westerly wind bursts will continue well into early to mid summer across much of the central and eastern Pacific, as well as parts of the western Pacific. This is going to work to intensify our El Niño as we go through the summer of 2026, as well as into the fall and winter of 2026.”

What that means for surfers? From a previous article here on SURFER, we spoke with Nathan Cool, a former surf forecaster at SwellWatch to break it down:

Summer
West Coast: More hurricane swells. Fewer southern hemis. Warmer local waters. (Find a spot that likes shorter interval south swells.)
East Coast: Fewer hurricanes. (Resist the SUP. Consider a trip to Baja.)
Hawaii: Fewer southern hemis. (Find a spot that likes wind swell.)

Winter
Pacific Northwest: Lots of swell, less wind and rain. (Get it while it lasts.)
California: Warmer water and more swell, but also more wind and rain. (Find a spot that likes south winds.)
East Coast: No significant surf impact.
Hawaii: Lots of swell, wind and rain. (Find a spot that’s well protected.)

It should be noted that, according to NOAA’s current climate prediction data, there are no indications of a coming El Niño – let alone a “super” one. And while Schlotthauer may have lofty ideas, here’s the latest update from the weather experts:

“A transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral is expected in February-April 2026 (60% chance), with ENSO-neutral likely persisting through the Northern Hemisphere summer (56% chance in June-August 2026).”

But…fingers crossed?