Cubs roster projection: Forecasting the 2026 Opening Day squad as Cactus League play begins

MESA, Ariz. — Usually, Cactus League opening day would be far too early to venture a guess at the Cubs’ regular-season Opening Day roster.

But when the Cubs faced the White Sox on Friday to kick off their spring training schedules, much of their expected active roster was already obvious.

There are still a couple position battles to watch: the fourth outfielder spot and last opening in the bullpen. And, of course, injuries and quality of play throughout the spring could change the roster picture.

“Roster decisions out of spring training are based on a number of things,” manager Criag Counsell said Friday when asked about the players competing to make the team. “Certainly, performance is one of them. But they're going to get opportunities, for sure. We signed them because we think they can provide major-league value.”

Here’s one possible Opening Day roster configuration, plus the factors the Cubs are weighing this spring:

Starting pitchers (5)

RHP Cade Horton

RHP Jameson Taillon

RHP Edward Cabrera

LHP Matthew Boyd

LHP Shota Imanaga

The Cubs’ rotation is all but set. What’s left to sort out this spring are rotation order and the Opening Day starter. Horton, after one of the best second-half performances of any starting pitcher last year, is considered the favorite to win the Opening Day nod, but Counsell has not tipped his hand.

As long as the Cubs’ pitching staff remains healthy, the rotation crunch will happen when left-hander Justin Steele (elbow surgery) returns from the injured list.

Relievers (8)

RHP Colin Rea

RHP Daniel Palecia

RHP Phil Maton

RHP Hunter Harvey

RHP Jacob Webb

RHP Porter Hodge

LHP Caleb Thielbar

LHP Hoby Milner

The Cubs’ bullpen is also pretty straightforward, but they have interesting options for the final spot. Right-hander Porter Hodge is included here, after a rocky 2025 season that included injury and mechanics issues — which were likely linked. Hodge, who has served as the Cubs’ closer at times the last two years, is a bounce-back candidate.

The Cubs, however, could go a number of ways. If Ryan Rolison or Luke Little stand out this spring, the Cubs could carry a third left-hander. If they want another option who could provide length, Ben Brown or Javier Assad could fill that role.

Catchers (3)

C Miguel Amaya

C Carson Kelly

DH/C Moisés Ballesteros

Kelly and Amaya are poised to split time behind the plate. Ballesteros is expected to mostly serve as a designated hitter, but the Cubs want to make sure he gets some catching experience this season. The Cubs can also use the DH spot to get their lineup regulars days off in the field.

Infield (6)

1B Micheal Busch

2B Nico Hoerner

SS Dansby Swanson

3B Alex Bregman

UTL Matt Shaw

1B Tyler Austin

Shaw is set to play a super-utility role, which will also include reps in the outfield. Austin gives the Cubs a right-handed option off the bench to pair with Busch. But Busch, a left-handed hitter, is also expected to get more at-bats against left-handed pitching this season, compared to years past.

Outfield (4)

LF Ian Happ

CF Pete Crow-Armstrong

RF Seiya Suzuki

OF Dylan Carlson

The fourth outfielder spot is one of the more intriguing battles in Cubs camp this year.

Carlson, a non-roster invitee, is included in this roster projection. His switch-hitting ability could be valuable off the bench, and he’s a former first-round pick who in 2021 finished third in NL Rookie of the Year Voting.

He and fellow NRI outfielder Chas McCormick are both proven major-leaguers who were derailed by injury. The pair appear to be neck-and-neck in the competition.

Already on the 40-man roster are Kevin Alcántara and Justin Dean. Both have minor-league option years left, which will factor in as the Cubs ponder roster decisions.

Injured list

LHP Justin Steele

RHP Shelby Miller

Steele and Miller are both recovering from elbow surgeries. Steele is targeting May or June for his return to a major-league mound.

Miller had an internal brace procedure this past offseason to address his UCL injury, before he signed a two-year deal worth $2.5 million this spring. Like Steele, Miller avoided a full Tommy John surgery, which should shorten his recovery. He hopes to return late in the season, but pitching in 2026 is not guaranteed.