540 tenge per dollar not a market signal, says National Bank

Tengrinews.kz – The National Bank of Kazakhstan has clarified that the government’s mention of a 540 tenge per dollar exchange rate should not be interpreted as a market signal.
Earlier, Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov addressed concerns about possible devaluation during a government briefing, dismissing predictions that the dollar might reach 600 tenge this fall. He explained that the 540 rate is a technical baseline used in drafting the 2026 state budget, based on an oil price of $60 per barrel.

“There is also a pessimistic one in case oil drops to $50. In that case, other mechanisms would apply. But at the moment, we see the baseline as the most realistic. We do not expect a devaluation or sharp weakening of the tenge," said Bektenov.

Following this, Deputy Chair of the National Bank Aliya Moldabekova stressed that the 540 figure is not a target or forecast, but a technical estimate used solely for planning purposes.

“It’s important to understand that this is not the desired exchange rate for the budget, nor a signal for the market. Those who interpret it that way are mistaken. The forecast for next year’s socio-economic development is still under discussion, and no indicators have been finalized,” she said.