Singapore (Reuters) — A year ago, after oil prices had halved in six months, analysts were forecasting a price recovery in 2015 while many traders were busy shorting the market. As it turned out, the traders were correct and oil prices fell by another third this year. Analysts have now forecast a pick-up in prices over 2016, while traders built short positions on US oil futures to a record in early December. The difference in the two views is on what happens in response to an oil output surplus that has been estimated as high as 2 million barrels per day (bpd) by some analysts. Many analysts expect a price recovery towards the end of 2016 to pull up the average for the full year, with production – especially in the United States – falling as drillers succumb to debt and low revenues. But traders say analysts based their outlooks [...]
