Blackstone's Byron Wien unveils his big surprises for 2017

Brendan McDermid/Reuters

Blackstone Vice Chairman and ace investor Byron Wien has unveiled his list of 10 surprises for 2017.

Wien believes these things have a better-than-50% chance of happening, but the average investor anticipates a less than 30% likelihood of occurring.

Wien started this tradition in 1986, when he was Morgan Stanley's top investment strategist, and he continued it when he joined Blackstone in 2009.

The predictions range from political (President-elect Donald Trump will step away from extreme positions) to financial (the 10-year yield will approach 4%).

Here they are:

1. Trump softens his tone considerably.

"Still brooding about his loss of the popular vote, Donald Trump vows to win over those who oppose him by 2020.  He moves away from his more extreme positions on virtually all issues to the dismay of some right wing loyalists."

"He insists, 'The voters elected me, not some ideology.' His unilateral actions throw policy staffers throughout the government into turmoil.  Virtually all of the treaties and agreements he vowed to tear up on his first day in office are modified, not trashed.  His wastebasket remains empty."

2. US economic growth tops 3% again.

"The combination of tax cuts on corporations and individuals, more constructive trade agreements, dismantling regulation of financial and energy companies, and infrastructure tax incentives pushes the 2017 real growth rate above 3% for the US economy. Productivity improves for the first time since 2014."

3. The S&P 500 rises to 2,500.

"The Standard & Poor’s 500 operating earnings are $130 in 2017 and the index rises to 2500 as investors become convinced the U.S. economy is back on a long-term growth path. Fears about a ballooning budget deficit are kept in the background. Will dynamic scoring reducing the budget deficit actually kick in?"