The 2020 Census Is Still Problematic—Even Without the Citizenship Question: raceAhead

The upcoming census is expected to undercount already underrepresented communities.

Hi everyone! Fortune commentary editor Tamara El-Waylly here, covering for Ellen for a few days.

As Census Bureau workers start to canvas the streets this month to verify home addresses in preparation for the 2020 census, Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Kamala Harris would like to remind us that the Trump Administration’s “campaign of terror” against immigrant communities may skew the upcoming census results. 

“When that census-taker comes knocking at that door, they’re not going to answer the door,” she said on NBC’s “Meet the Press.”

After ICE raids of Mississippi processing plants that led to 680 arrests, and general anti-immigration policies by the Trump Administration, Harris may have a point. 

The attempt to include a citizenship question in the upcoming census also did its own amount of damage, even though it ultimately failed (and not for lack of trying). “The public controversy over the issue has already stirred fears of retribution among many immigrants, who say they will avoid filling out the census form even if the question is not asked,” reports the New York Times.

A significant miscount would create a flawed population picture of the U.S. today—and there are many reasons to be concerned about that. The census impacts everything from how seats are apportioned in the U.S. House of Representatives, to redistricting, to federal funding for state programs.

It goes beyond the political: The demographic details offered by the census affect decisions by the private sector too. Companies use census data when considering investment opportunities in communities, evaluating possible markets, and assessing customer demand, among other determinations. 

And the 2020 census could be one of the worst undercounts since 1990. Projections by the Urban Institute estimate that around 3.68% of black people and 3.57% of Latinx people could be missed. That’s about 1.7 million and 2.2 million people, respectively.

“An inaccurate census would exacerbate systemic inequities for people of color and people with low incomes,” Vanita Gupta, president and CEO of The Leadership Conference Education Fund, told Newsweek. She also pointed out that “privileged communities,” like those with multiple homes, might be counted more than once. 

Granted, the census has long been political. At the start of Jim Crow, for instance, the survey was used to determine African heritage—to uphold a racist structure that would deny black people citizenship. From 1850 to 1950, the census asked for place of birth and naturalization status, writes Shom Mazumder, a PhD candidate at Harvard University, for the Washington Post, “in response to congressional and public demand for tracking the entrance of ‘desirable’ races.” And, in 2004, the Census Bureau handed the Department of Homeland Security personal data about Arab-Americans, including names and locations.

Obtaining population data is difficult to begin with, and demographic shifts and access to certain populations (such as the homeless) complicate matters. The Census Bureau does make attempts at a more accurate count, like multiple in-person visits to households that don’t respond to the physical survey. There’s also been a push to have respondents use online surveys, largely to cut costs, but it’s increased concerns about technical vulnerabilities. 

And, certainly, the current political climate isn’t going to help get more responses.