Voter turnout for 2024 primary election expected to decrease

Presidential primary years tend to see a boost in voter participation. But with both candidates already decided, this year isn't seeing that normal boost.

PORTLAND, Ore. (KOIN) -- We're less than a week away from Primary Election Day, and thousands of ballots are currently in the mail.

Presidential primary years tend to see a boost in voter participation. But with both candidates already decided, this year isn't seeing that normal boost.

The last presidential primary was in 2020, during the first months of the pandemic.

But voters still turned out, with 15% of the votes coming in a week before the election.

In 2022, with a primary in the Governor's race, that number dropped down to 8% the week before, nearly identical to what has taken place this year.

There was over 50% total turnout in 2020, compared to just over 35% in 2022.

Multnomah County Elections Director Tim Scott says they expect that pattern to continue this time around.

"We're anticipating that we'll see somewhere between 35 and 40% turnout for this election based on historical data," he said. 

There are several important races and measures to be decided in Oregon, including the Multnomah County District Attorney race and two big congressional races with national implications. Those races will be covered in an Eye on Northwest Politics Primary Special on Thursday night at 7 p.m., featuring KOIN 6 Political Director Ken Boddie and political analyst Rick Metsger, a former state senator and political consultant.