First Warning: Severe storms possible late next week
The highest confidence in severe weather is on Thursday, which also has our highest chances for measurable rain in Central Texas.
AUSTIN (KXAN) -- After a relatively "tame" start to the severe weather season, which began March 1 in Central Texas, we may be in for a more active period ahead.
We want to give you a First Warning ahead of the potential for at least one day of severe weather later next week.
Storm set-up
A cut-off upper level low due to set up over the southwestern U.S. will help usher in southwesterly winds and a series of disturbances that should bring rain and storms to Central Texas.
At the same point the air will become increasingly humid ahead of the dryline. Dew points well into the 60s could bring us some of our most humid air of the year so far.
The highest confidence in severe weather is on Thursday, which also has our highest chances for measurable rain in Central Texas.
The Storm Prediction Center already had areas near and north of Austin in their "Day 6" severe weather risk, highlighting the possibility of severe weather in our area.
The forecasted threat for severe weather will undergo several adjustments as forecast confidence changes as we head through the coming days.
As of now large hail and wind damage appear our greatest risk with a lower tornado threat. Flash flooding appears less likely, but not impossible.
Friday cold front
Separately, a cold front arriving on Friday could help bring additional storms, possibly severe, into Central Texas with some leftover rain possible into next Saturday.
Rainfall amounts
A widespread half inch to 1.5 inches appears likely over the next week, but as confidence in storm chances increases, expect the rainfall forecast to also increase.
The possibility exists for some areas to end up with several inches of rain, especially if storms train over the same area.
Stay with the First Warning Weather Team as we track the severe weather risk. We'll continue to update this blog through Tuesday at which time we'll transition our severe weather focus to our main weather forecast story.