April coming in like a tamed lion
Central Texas is potentially facing another month where rainfall won't be as much as we would like to get. -- Rich Segal
AUSTIN (KXAN) -- The start of April will be much warmer than normal as highs are forecast to peak in the upper half of the 80s. That "tamed lion" the headline alludes to is the moderate chance of showers and thunderstorms that are forecast Monday evening through the early overnight hours Tuesday.
March ended as it was predicted to be as temperatures were warmer than normal. However, the forecast of near-normal rain did not happen for the second straight month.
The average high temperature for March was 75.5°. Normal is 73.3°. The month's high temperatures were above normal 20 times, topped by 91° on the 5th. Lows were a few degrees higher as well, averaging 55.9°, 3.7° above the average. The coldest? 43° on the 10th.
Of the 31 days in the month, only eight days had measured rain. The total of 1.34" is only 47% of what is normal, 2.88". There was a healthy rain of 0.74" on St. Patrick's Day.
The deficit in March, combined with the deficit in February has cut into the "surplus" for the year. That 3.43" surplus we had in January is down to 0.99" entering April.
So, we're hoping, like you are, that April will be wetter than the average of 2.42". You'd think with April being a spring month that the normal would be higher. However, April is the 3rd driest month of the year.
If you pay attention to the Climate Prediction Center's forecast you might be crestfallen to see their prediction being closer to drier conditions rather than wetter. It is not anywhere close to what is supposed to happen in an El Niño spring when Central Texas should have a wetter forecast.
As for temperatures, it seems like there's always a warmer-than-normal forecast so the CPC's outlook did not come as too much of a surprise. As the planet continues to warm it would appear that we can expect this trend to continue, thus defying the El Niño that is currently in place. El Niño springs are supposed to be cooler than normal.
Highs start at 78° on April Fools' Day and end on the 30th at 83°. Mornings warm from the mid-50s at the start of the month to the low 60s at month's end.
And, it's interesting to note that all April heat records are 92° or higher. It has never hit 100° in the fourth month of the year.
Here's hoping that the CPC's outlook won't bear fruit.