Checking in on the Guardians’ Options for the Number One Pick - 2.0

Adding a fifth option to our list

Four potential options for the first pick in the MLB draft? Yoda voice: “No. There is another.”

The college baseball regular season, including conference tournaments, will conclude by the end of May. For any teams who qualify, the College World Series will commence on June 14th and end on June 24th. Then, the Guardians will have their choice of any baseball player they want on Sunday, July 14th.

With limited time left to evaluate players, we wrote recently that the Guardians’ choices seem to be narrowed down to four options: Oregon State’s left-handed hitting second-baseman Travis Bazzana, Georgia’s right-handed hitting corner outfielder Charlie Condon, Texas A&M’s switch-hitting outfielder Braden Montgomery or Mississippi prep star right-handed hitting shortstop and pitcher Konnor Griffin. However, with this article, we are adding in Jac Caglianone, left-handed hitting first baseman and left-handed pitcher from the University of Florida.

Just a word regarding Nick Kurtz, power-hitting first baseman for Wake Forest. I don’t believe, giving the available options, that the Guardians will choose a first-base only player with the first pick, so I am not going to include Kurtz in this analysis. If we hear rumors to the contrary, I will adjust in future editions. I also don’t believe any of the excellent pitchers in this year’s draft have performed at a level where they would compel the Guardians to take them over a hitter.

Let’s check in on some stat lines:

Travis Bazzana, 21 (turns 22 in August) 6 foot, 199 pounds: 32 games, 188 plate appearances: 47/17 BB/K, .434/.590/.971 with 19 home runs, 9 steals and 4 caught stealing. Has only played second base, but is generally thought to be capable of outfield play, including centerfield, if needed. Bazzana had a bit of a scare with a hand hit-by-pitch last week but returned to the lineup shortly afterwards.

Bazzana’s MyMLBDraft Collection of Prospect Evaluator Blurbs.

Charlie Condon 21 years old, 6’6”, 216 pounds: 35 games, 197 plate appearances: 33/29 BB/K, .483/.584/1.119 with 26 home runs, 3 steals and 1 caught stealing. Condon has played six games at first base, 18 at third base, eight in left field, 11 in centerfield and seven in right field. He profiles best as a corner outfielder but he has made some great plays at third base this season.

Condon’s MyMLBDraft Collection of Prospect Evaluator Blurbs.

Braden Montgomery turns 21 at the end of April, 6’2”, 195 pounds: 34 games, 195 plate appearances: 41/30 K/BB, .376/.518/.906 with 22 home runs, 4 stolen bases and 2 caught stealing. Montgomery has been used strictly as a right-fielder.

Montgomery’s MyMLBDraft Collection of Prospect Evaluator Blurbs.

Jac Caglianone turned 21 years old in February, 6’5” 245 pounds: 39 games, 186 plate appearances, 23/14 BB/K, 23 home runs, 0 stolen bases, .401/.495/.854. 3.86 ERA, 54/32 BB/K as a pitcher. Caglianone is seen as likely a corner outfielder with an outside chance of being a relief pitcher on the side (he has already had Tommy John surgery). An upper 90’s fastball and exit velocity in the 90th percentile as a hitter makes Caglianone someone that every team picking in the top five needs to consider. Caglianone doesn’t have any Cape Cod hitting record and he struck out quite a bit last year (17/58 BB/K in 2023), so I don’t think he’s quite at the level of a Bazzana, Condon or Montgomery but IF the team believes he could be a reliever 2-3 days a week, that gives you a 27th player on the roster, essentially. So, it’s definitely an option to monitor. If Caglianone can play a corner outfield spot as some scouts have speculated, that would help his case.

Caglianone’s MyMLBDraft Collection of Prospect Evaluator Blurbs

Konnor Griffin, turns 18 in May, 6’4”, 210 pounds: 31 games, 136 plate appearances, 41/8 BB/K, .567/.706/.977, 7 home runs, 74 stolen bases, 82/17 K/BB as a pitcher, 0.56 ERA. Griffin throws 96-97 mph with his fastball, though he is seen as a hitting prospect. He is mostly thought of as a future shortstop or a future centerfielder, defensively. His regular season wraps up on April 25th then his team will enter the Mississippi high school baseball playoffs for an indeterminate amount of time.

MyMLBDraft Collection of Prospect Evaluator Blurbs.

Let’s take a look under the hood at performance against offspeed pitches:

And against fastballs:

Finally, let’s see a combination of numbers versus level of competition and corresponding output from Matan K @mk237700 on Twitter:

The full leaderboard provided by Matan is linked here.

Don’t forget how these prospects have performed when asked to hit with wooden bats, as that will, obviously, be what they pick up when they reach the majors. Travis Bazzana was MVP of the Cape Cod league last summer with a 1.037 OPS in 158 plate appearances. In only fifty at-bats in Cape Cod, Condon had only a .648 OPS, but in more extensive time in the wooden bat Northwoods league he hit .286 with 18 doubles, seven home runs, and 68 RBIs in 248 at-bats. In 69 plate appearances at Cape Cod last summer, Montgomery had a .900 OPS. Griffin played for the U.S. under-18 team in Taiwan last summer but I can’t seem to find any stats of how that experience went but it’s surely useful info for the Guardians to evaluate. Caglianone has not played anywhere outside of college ball.

Last week was a bit of a rough week for all our options, with only Condon pretty much holding serve and Griffin increasing his slash line, and others experiencing slight declines in their rate categories. With the information presented above, I still believe either Travis Bazzana or Charlie Condon will be donning a Guardians’ hat on July 14th. However, the switch-hitting ability and Cape Cod success of Braden Montgomery gives him an outside chance and more and more I buy the argument that the ceiling of Konnor Griffin is by far the highest in this class.

We will continue to monitor the performance of these four prospects over the next two months as we prepare for the first number one pick in Cleveland history. Check in on Oregon State, Georgia, Florida, Texas A&M and Konnor Griffin’s MaxPrep page to keep up to date!