Series Preview: Red Sox at Guardians
Familiar faces in new places
The Red Sox and Guardians meet for the second time in the span of a week, Cleveland having taken 3 of 4 in Boston.
The Red Sox are 13-10 with a team wRC+ of 98, a starting rotation FIP of 2.93, and a bullpen FIP of 3.71. They have produced -10.7 Defensive WAR but really put on a clinic when the Guardians were in town a week ago.
The Guardians are 16-6 with a team wRC+ of 115, a starting rotation FIP of 4.42, and a bullpen FIP of 2.78. They have produced 1.9 Defensive WAR.
It looks like tonight's opener might get washed out, in which case I'd expect a double-header on Wednesday. With the off-day on Monday, it shouldn't mess up the Guardians rotation plans to start two of their guys on Wednesday.
Match-ups:
Game 1: Ben Lively, RHP 3.61 FIP vs. Tanner Houck, RHP 2.04 FIP
Analysis: Lively had a strong debut for Cleveland, which I wrote about here, and I'm excited to see what he is able to do his second time out, but Houck, of course, threw a Maddux against the Guardians (a complete game shutout in under 100 pitches). Houck has an excellent slider, and Josh Naylor, Andres Gimenez, Brayan Rocchio and Estevan Florial have all been well-above average against sliders so far this season, so they are some names to keep in mind. For his career, Jose Ramirez has hit sliders well, also.
Game 2: Carlos Carrasco, RHP 3.59 FIP vs. TBD
Analysis: Carrasco is doing the crafty vet thing and keeping the Guardians in games, but often flirts with disaster. I assume this will be a bullpen game of sorts for the Red Sox.
Game 3: Triston McKenzie, RHP 6.65 FIP vs. Brayan Bello, RHP 4.11 FIP
Analysis: McKenzie saw some progress in his last start but it was against a very poor offensive team in the Athletics. Getting McKenzie on track to give the team six strong innings is such a crucial part of the Guardians attempt to win a division title. Bello, meanwhile, is an excellent young pitcher helping lead a Boston rotation that has been as surprisingly good as the Cleveland rotation has been disappointing. Bello has an excellent changeup, and Josh Naylor, Gabriel Arias and Estevan Florial have hit change-ups well. Bo Naylor hit changeups particularly well in 2023 so starting him in a potential day-game on Wednesday and then again on Thursday would make sense.
For overall hitting, Cleveland is led by Josh Naylor at 187 wRC+, David Fry at 165 wRC+, Steven Kwan at 152 wRC+, Estevan Florial at 136 wRC+, Gabriel Arias at 126 wRC+ and Andres Gimenez at 122 wRC+. Boston is paced by Tyler O'Neill at 231 wRC+, Rob Refsnyder at 222 wRC+, Wilyer Abreu at 140 wRC+, Connor Wong at 139 wRC+, Triston Casas at 137 wRC+ and Tyler Heineman at 136 wRC+.
There are seven more days left in April for the Guardians to finish this month strong. Winning a series against the Red Sox would be a great way to assure this is going to be a very strong opening month. The biggest wins would be to see a starter go a full six innings and handle an average Boston lineup, and to see the Guardians’ hitters make some useful adjustments in their approach vs. Tanner Houck.