SMART could seek November sales tax renewal

A recent survey shows that 65% of respondents would support a renewal, but the tax would need a two-thirds supermajority to pass.

SMART might win voter support for a critical sales tax renewal if it places a measure on the ballot this November, according to a new survey presented to the rail agency this week.

Dave Metz, a consultant who produced the report, said the strongest supporters of SMART tend to be younger Democrats and independents, and this group of voters is expected to show up in large numbers for the presidential election.

“With that said, we’re also at a point right now where the cost of living is the biggest concern on voters’ minds, and in relative terms, transportation is a lower priority in the North Bay,” compared to issues such as homelessness, housing and public safety, Metz said.

“So the turnout benefits of this November have to be balanced against the voter mood,” he said.

Out of 642 responses from Sonoma County and Marin County voters, 65% indicated they would support a measure renewing the quarter-cent sales tax for 30 years netting about $51 million annually, while 30% said no.

The margin of error for the survey is plus or minus 4%, and the tax would need a two-thirds super majority to pass, Metz said.

“So by those metrics, this is not a slam dunk by any means,” Metz said at the Sonoma-Marin Area Rail Transit board meeting on Wednesday. “For this measure to be successful it would require, I think, public outreach.”

Metz said that includes communication from the rail agency about what the tax dollars actually pay for, and that messaging should be in a non-advocacy voice.

That could also be paired with private campaign materials that argue in favor of a yes vote in order to help push the level of support above that two-thirds threshold, he said.

The survey was done in response to a Marin County Civil Grand Jury report released last summer. The report said the rail service needs to convince Marin and Sonoma voters to support a tax renewal to keep the agency from financial collapse after a measure failed in 2020.

The quarter-cent sales tax is the district’s primary funding source. It was approved in 2008 and is set to expire in April 2029.

Metz, a research partner and president of Fairbank, Maslin, Maulin, Metz and Associates, and his firm were hired in October to conduct the survey for $38,500.

The pool of respondents were people who were likely to vote in November. They included 402 voters from Sonoma and 240 from Marin. Surveys were done online and by phone, email and text.

The survey found that 82% of those respondents who have used SMART say service is “excellent” or “good.”

Windsor Councilmember Debora Fudge, a SMART board member, said the extension in Windsor is expected to come online in 2025. She asked whether bringing a tax renewal to voters in 2026 could yield a higher chance for success if the agency is able to capture more riders through that rail expansion.

“Would it make a big difference?” she asked.

“The more people are riding the train, the more that experience gets broadened and socialized the better it is for public support,” Metz said. “So having a bunch more riders from Windsor, I think, would be a positive thing.”

However, it would be difficult to measure what voter turnout would be in 2026.

When asked what best describes SMART, a majority of survey respondents agreed that SMART is good for the environment, safe, reliable and important for the economy.

A 54% majority said there is need for additional funding for the agency, while 27% said there was little or no need, and 19% said they didn’t know.

Maintaining clean and safe trains and stations, as well as reducing traffic, were seen as high priorities, according to the survey.

Campaign messaging that emphasized benefits to climate change and accountability resonated with respondents lifting support to 69%, the survey found. In response to negative messaging, support dipped to 64%

“Obviously we’ll deep dive into this data,” said Eddy Cumins, general manager of SMART. “I think it helps with some of our messaging as we move forward and what’s important to folks. I think it identifies areas where we can continue to improve and kind of highlight some of our weaknesses and opportunities for improvement.”

Board members said they had some ideas about communication materials.

Sonoma County Supervisor Chris Coursey, a board member, said riding the train is “an alternative to being in traffic,” and it’s an important point to communicate to the public.

“I don’t think that people see SMART as a reduction in traffic, but it’s definitely an alternative to traffic,” he said.

Marin County Supervisor Mary Sackett, a board member, said there is an opportunity to talk about the SMART multiuse paths that are also funded by the tax dollars. She said residents think that those are city or county projects, but SMART has a large network of paths connected to its rail line, she said.

Additionally, Sackett said there’s momentum for a regional transportation measure sought by the Metropolitan Transportation Commission.

“What I’m trying to understand is how — if there’s a regional transit measure — how this fits into that discussion,” Sackett told staff.

Board members asked whether voter fatigue should be a concern.

Metz said considering it is a tax renewal and not a new tax or tax increase, voter fatigue likely would not be an issue.

Board member Patty Garbarino said she’s worked on several campaigns in the past and said the survey results are reassuring.

“I think these numbers are phenomenal and I’m very encouraged,” she said.

Coursey suggested that Marin County Supervisor Eric Lucan, the board chair, meet with staff to begin conversations around proposals to be brought to the full board.

“If November is something that we want to have conversations with, time is of the essence,” Lucan said.