Advancing up the play-in? There’s still a path for Warriors

"The rest of these games are probably playoff, play-in atmosphere."

DALLAS — Even after losing to the Mavericks at the buzzer, the Warriors still have a chance to climb up the Western Conference standings. In fact, it was one of the many topics broached in a light postgame visitor’s locker room that included a miniature watch party of the end of Iowa’s Final Four win over UConn.

The Warriors remain in the 10th seed, the slot they unofficially clinched in Houston on Thursday. A win over the Mavericks would’ve done wonders for Golden State in the standings, given that the Pelicans and Kings loss and the Lakers were idle. Their margin for error with five games remaining is slim, but it’s still very possible to advance out of the 9/10 play-in matchup.

If it has felt like every Warriors game has had playoff ramifications for weeks, that’s because they have. And it doesn’t seem like the final five games will let up.

“We had to be, probably for the past week, week and a half,” Gary Payton II said when asked if he feels like Golden State has been in playoff-mode. “We had to make some things happen, just continue to play at a high level. Know what’s at stake. The rest of these games are probably playoff, play-in atmosphere.”

First, here’s the play-in picture the Warriors — admitted standings-watchers — will face on their Saturday day off.

7th: Pelicans (45-32) 
8th: Kings (44-33) 
9th: Lakers (44-33) 
10th: Warriors (42-35) 

Just two games separate the Warriors from the Kings and Lakers. Being in the eighth seed has a significant advantage over the ninth or 10th spot: you get two chances to win a sudden death game, rather than the harsh reality of a single loss ending your season.

There are a few factors trending in the Warriors’ favor. For one, they’re playing their best ball of the season. Before the Mavericks loss, they won a season-high six straight games. Since Jan. 31, they’re 22-11 — the sixth best winning percentage in the league (bad news: the Lakers are second at 20-8 in that span).

Another thing in their favor is the scheduling. Golden State’s five remaining opponents have a .436 winning percentage — fifth easiest of any team, per Tankathon. They have two games against the Jazz and one in Portland, plus tough matchups against New Orleans and the Lakers. But winning those latter two, against LA and the Pelicans, could make all the difference.

The teams the Warriors are chasing, meanwhile, face uphill battles. New Orleans, which has lost four straight, has the Warriors, Kings, Lakers and Suns left (plus the Blazers). Los Angeles has the seventh hardest remaining schedule — Minnesota, Cleveland, Golden State, New Orleans and Memphis.

And Sacramento is the most vulnerable. They lost Malik Monk for the rest of the regular season and Kevin Huerter for the year. They still have the Thunder, Suns and Pelicans left.

The Warriors might need to go 4-1 our win each of their last five games to make headway. Given how they’ve handled less talented opponents (they’re 24-5 against teams below .500), cleaning up on the Jazz and Blazers is certainly possible. The swing games will be against the Lakers and Pelicans.

The Warriors don’t have the tiebreaker against the Kings, but can claim it on the Pelicans and Lakers with head-to-head victories. For much of the second half, the Warriors have played well but haven’t budged in the standings, creating the mirage that the table is set in stone. But the bottom of the West still has the potential to get wacky in the last week.

Playoff Status, a playoff probabilities resource, gives the Warriors 20% chance at finishing either in seventh or eighth. For a visual, Draymond Green has made 21.4% of his 3-pointers with four seconds or less left on the shot clock.

Avoiding the 9/10 play-in is as likely as this shot going in.

It’s probably not the shot the Warriors would want. But it’s not a prayer, either.

At this point, after months tied down at the bottom of the playoff picture, the Warriors will take it.