Real number of coronavirus cases ‘could be 10 times higher’ than figures suggest
As coronavirus continues to spread across the world a leading British scientist has warned the real number of cases could be far higher than official figures suggest.
In mainland China, where the deadly virus broke out, the death toll has reached 722, while more than 34,400 others have been infected.
There have been at least 320 further cases reported in 27 other countries and one additional death in the Philippines.
But scientists have warned the virus’ rapid spread, its 14-day incubation period and unreliable testing methods make the true numbers difficult to track, the Daily Mail reported.
Despite the number of reported cases having slowed over the past two days, Public Health England announced UK labs will be able to test more than 1,000 people per day from next week.
John Edmunds, a professor at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, told the Mail that modelling showed there were ‘ten times more cases than have been reported – or even more’.
Prof Edmunds added that ‘it’s a mild disease that might be missed if somebody doesn’t seek healthcare’: ‘And none of the tests is going to be 100 per cent sensitive so it is not unusual to only capture maybe 10 per cent of the cases.’
Predicting the true scale of the outbreak involves a degree of ‘guesswork’, he said, and ‘it becomes very hard’ to confirm every single case.
The professor told the newspaper ‘time will tell’ whether or not China’s containment measures had been effective.
A second group of Brits are set to be evacuated from Hubei province tomorrow before being quarantined at an NHS facility in Milton Keynes.
Five British nationals, including a child, became the latest to test positive for the virus in the French Alps.
Those cases follow that of lorry driver Alan Steele, who is one of the 61 passengers on board the Diamond Princess cruise ship anchored in Japan to have tested positive.
Experts have said they are making rapid progress developing a vaccine, but it still won’t be available until the end of the year at the earliest.
Meanwhile, world health chiefs have said hospital staff battling the virus are running low of face masks.
In China, scientists have suggested it could have spread from bats to humans through the illegal trafficking of pangolins.
What is the coronavirus and where did it start?
Coronaviruses are a family of diseases which include the common cold and the virus which caused Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), which originated in China in 2002 and killed nearly 800 people around the world.
The virus causing concern now is a new strain which has made the jump from animals to people.
It causes flu-like symptoms and can make it hard for people to breathe, causing viral pneumonia in severe cases.
Over 100 people worldwide have now died after contracting the illness.
The virus is more likely to progress into a severe illness or prove fatal among older patients or those with weakened immune systems.
As it is a viral illness, antibiotics will not help and there is no known cure or vaccine.
What are the symptoms of the virus? .
The Foreign Office has warned against all but essential travel to mainland China, and British Airways has subsequently suspended flights there.
They have not advised against travel to Thailand and Japan, which have both seen cases of the virus, but warned there are enhanced quarantine procedures at entry points to Japan such as airports and ports.
If you’re booked onto a flight with BA and are scheduled to fly between January 26 – February 23, you can request a refund.
In order to do this, get in touch with them directly through the BA website.
They also offer the option to rebook to the same destination, although it is not known when flights to mainland China will resume.
Can I get a refund on my BA flights?
Is it safe to travel to Thailand?
Is it safe to travel to Japan as the coronavirus spreads?
To avoid the illness, take usual hygiene precautions, such as using a tissue to cover coughs and sneezes, and making sure to wash your hands.
Do not touch your eyes, nose or mouth after touching things like poles on public transport and avoid close contact with people suffering an acute respiratory infection.
You should also avoid unprotected contact with wild or farm animals.
So far, no cases of coronavirus have been confirmed in the UK.
Almost 100 people have been tested for it here, with all of the tests coming back negative.
How many people in the UK have it?
The virus originated in the city of Wuhan in China, where it is believed to have made the jump from animals to people at a seafood market.
Wuhan is the capital of China’s Hubei province, a landlocked province in central China.
It is built along the Yangtze river, and is around 500 miles west of Shanghai and 690 miles north of Hong Kong.
It is the largest and most populous city in central China, although estimates over its population vary.