Too early to say when coronavirus pandemic will peak in the UK

England’s deputy chief medical officer has said it is ‘far too early’ to say when the coronavirus pandemic will peak in the UK.

Dr Jenny Harries told the daily Downing Street press briefing that she would not be willing to ‘predict a precise timing’ for it after other experts suggested on Wednesday it appeared to be two to three weeks away.

She said: ‘The reason for that is we are only just starting to see a bite, if you like, in the interventions and social distancing that have been put into place. It would be far too early to predict that.

‘I think we are starting to see some helpful movement, and what we will be looking for is a change in the slope. Rather than being a very steep curve upwards, we will be looking for it to be a gentler slope.

‘But we must not take our foot off the pedal.

‘People have been really co-operative and I think in the last few days the public have really understood that this is something very serious and their actions, wherever they are, will save lives.

‘So, too early to say yet, but we are starting to see some movement in the right direction.’

On Wednesday, Professor Neil Ferguson, from Imperial College London and one of the scientists advising the Government, said that if current measures continue, intensive care demand will peak in two to three weeks and should decline after that.

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The Department of Health said 11,658 people have tested positive in the UK as of 9am on Thursday.

A total of 104,866 people have been tested with 93,208 negative results.

Dr Harries defended not ordering coronavirus tests earlier, explaining that it ‘is not an issue of a lack of forethought in planning’ and ‘it’s an unprecedented event’.

She added: ‘And it is a brand new virus so even to understand how you might test it you have to have the virus and understand a little bit about if before you can start.’

The senior medic said she wants to see more public testing for coronavirus carried out, but only after patients and health care workers had been properly prioritised.

She confirmed that some contact tracing and testing was still going on, especially in ‘high-risk’ establishments such as prisons and care homes, but said that it was ‘not an appropriate mechanism as we go forward’.

Dr Harries continued: ‘What we need to do is focus on the clinical management of the patients first and foremost, and then additionally on health and care staff and first-responder staff.

‘Obviously, if there was infinite testing facilities, and we are growing them at pace and will have them, then it moves to the public.

‘But we need to be very careful about focusing on where it is clinically most valuable.’

Dr Harries also urged people to look after their physical and mental health, adding that the 1.5 million people told not to go out for 12 weeks had been sent letters with links to ways they can protect their mental health.

Speaking about everybody else, she said: ‘If people are not going out to work and often that creates quite a stress in terms of travel time, they have more free time to themselves.

‘And it might be the best opportunity the whole country has to say ‘I’m going to use my one exercise session every day to ensure that by the time this is over I’m super fit and so is my family’.

‘And in fact if you have something restricted it suddenly becomes quite a pleasurable event

‘Even if you might not have wished to jog along the street before, doing so now might be quite a relief and quite a positive thing for us all to do.’

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