Better know a draft prospect: Hagen Smith

Can the Royals draft and develop pitching?

We are just starting to dip into our draft coverage, but publications are starting to come out with their mock drafts. Georgia slugger Charlie Condon seems to be the consensus #1 pick right now with Florida’s Jac Caglianone not far behind. The Royals will have the #6 pick in the draft, thanks to missing out in the lottery, but they may have some intriguing options in what looks like a college-heavy top of the draft.

In the latest mock draft from Baseball America, they project Arkansas left-handed pitcher Hagen Smith to the Royals, writing that “in terms of strikeout rate and batting average against, no pitcher in the country has been as dominant as Hagen Smith this spring.”

Smith hails from tiny Bullard, Texas, a small town in east Texas that sits between Dallas and Shreveport, Louisiana. As a high school junior, he underwent Tommy John surgery, but returned his senior year to dominate with seven no-hitters, tying a state record, and posting a 0.19 ERA and 168 strikeouts in 73 innings.

He has continued to be a big-time strikeout pitcher at Arkansas, earning a spot in the rotation his freshman year. In three seasons so far, he has 282 strikeouts in 190 innings. In February, he struck out 17 batters against Oregon State, setting a new school record. Keith Law heard from scouts it “was the most dominant pitching performance they’d ever seen from an amateur pitcher.”

On the year, he has a 1.53 ERA with 100 strikeouts and 22 walks in 53 innings, and opponents are hitting just .136 against him. He leads the nation in strikeouts-per-nine-innings and has the lowest hits-per-nine innings. Overall he generates a whiff rate near 50 percent.

Hagen has a fastball that sits in the mid-90s but can run up to 100 mph, with a 65 grade slider, according to MLB Pipeline. There are concerns he will need more development of a third pitch at the pro level. From Geoff Pontes at Baseball America:

Smith primarily relies on his four-seamer (50% usage) and slider (36% usage). He’ll mix in a changeup 7-8% of the time and a curveball just 2% of the time. Smith’s heater grades out at 116 on our Stuff+ scale. His combination of plus velocity, movement and a low release compares well against his peers. His above-average slider, particularly for a lefthander, sits 84-85 mph with around 5-6 inches of sweep on average. It’s sort of a cutter, and it grades out at 113 on our Stuff+ scale.

His deceptive delivery can also cause problems for hitters, particularly lefties. From MLB Pipeline:

Smith employs far from a textbook delivery, working from a low-three-quarters slot with some crossfire that makes it tough to pick up his pitches and also to throw strikes at times.

They also note his improvement in walk rate this year, although he walked five in his last start against South Carolina.

Baseball America notes there is some risk that his ceiling is a reliever, if he can’t develop that third pitch, but that he has “some of the most electric arm talent from the left side in the class.” Barring injury, Smith is very likely to go in the first ten picks, and could very well be the first pitcher selected.

Baseball America: 6

Keith Law: 5

Kiley McDaniel: 30

MLB Pipeline: 6

Perfect Game: 6

Prospects Live: 8

Pitchers are always a risk, but the fact is, every team needs them. Smith is a polished arm, pitching against the top amateur hitters in the nation and making them look silly. The lack of a third pitch is a bit of a concern, but scouts had similar concerns with Chris Sale when he was a college lefty that some projected as a reliever.

The Tommy John surgery from his past is typically a red flag, but so many pitchers have undergone the process, you almost feel like it’s a necessary evil at this point. Smith has improved, but still seems a bit inconsistent in his ability to throw strikes. The Royals also don’t have a great track record developing college pitchers taken in the first round - Kyle Zimmer and Asa Lacy didn’t live up to their high draft selections. Smith may be an explosive talent that needs the right environment to flourish. The Royals have made changes to their pitching development regime, but still have yet to prove they can develop high-performing arms.