NFL Week 1 Player Props to Target

Target these five NFL player props for Week 1.

The NFL season is in full swing Sunday and I couldn’t be more excited!

If you’re looking to get in on the action, here are five player props to consider as we kick off a marathon day of football.

Baker Mayfield over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+120)

Revenge game narrative!

New Panthers quarterback Baker Mayfield has a lot to prove - not just to his old team, the Browns, who are visiting on his new home turf, but to his own team as Sam Darnold waits in the wings. Could this be a Christian McCaffrey game? Sure. But McCaffrey could easily catch one of Mayfield’s touchdowns.

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Mayfield played much of last season with an injury, but in each of his last three starts of the season he threw for two touchdowns per game.

Oh, and did I mention that I love plus-money? Grab the value at SI Sportsbook.

Derrick Henry over 10.5 receiving yards (-118)

There is a lot of trepidation among fantasy coaches as to whether or not Derrick Henry should be expected to return to full form.

Well, according to SI Sportsbook, you should probably bet he will. SI Sportsbook has his Week 1 rushing yards total all the way up at 98.5 - which is a yard higher than Jonathan Taylor versus an atrocious Texans run defense. But if you’re not quite willing to bet on Henry’s foot, how about you zig and bet on his hands?

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Yep, I’m betting on a Henry receiving prop. Henry was on pace to have his best year as a receiver in 2021 and he exceeded this total in six of his eight games played. A.J. Brown is gone to Philadelphia, Robert Woods is returning from injury, and first-round receiver Treylon Burks wasn’t seen much in preseason action. Maybe Henry is the secret weapon we never expected. I’d bet on it.

Jonathan Taylor over 96.5 rushing yards (-120)

Taylor is really, really good. The Texans’ run defense is really, really bad.

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Taylor rushed for 145 and 143 yards, respectively, in two games versus Houston last year. Meanwhile, the Texans surrendered the second-most rushing yards (2,481) to opposing teams in 2021—thanks in no small part to Taylor. If it ain’t broke…

Rashod Bateman over 45.5 receiving yards (-125)

Rashod Bateman should pick up where Marquise Brown left off, and that means racking up more than 45 yards versus a Jets defense that allowed an average of 13 yards per catch in 2021 (seventh-highest).

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Tight end Mark Andrews will get his share, but there’s plenty to go around with Lamar Jackson’s passing prop set at 225.5 yards.

Kyler Murray over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+105)

Remember when I said I love plus-money? How do I pass this one up when it also goes with the highest game total (53.5) of the week?

Sure, the Cardinals are without DeAndre Hopkins to start the season, but they acquired Brown, retained Zach Ertz and Rondale Moore is also in the mix. If there are several lead changes like I expect, Murray will need to air it out. This is a pass-happy offense with the 10th-most passing yards per game in 2021 hosting a more pass-happy Chiefs offense that averaged the fourth-most passing yards per game.

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Murray got off to a hot start last season with seven passing touchdowns in his first two contests. I’ll take this plus-money bet that he can do it again.

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