Super Bowl LVIII Betting Breakdown: Against the Spread, Over/Under Records for 49ers, Chiefs

Key betting information, records and trends for San Francisco and Kansas City.

Just as Kansas City Chiefs coach Andy Reid and San Francisco 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan are studying extensive scouting reports ahead of Super Bowl LVIII in order to gain an edge, Big Game bettors should be studying up on the records and tendencies of both teams before locking in their wagers as well.

More people than ever are expected to bet a record amount on this year’s Super Bowl, so let’s take a minute to review the betting profiles of the reigning Super Bowl champion Chiefs and 49ers, who are aiming to win their first Lombardi Trophy since the ‘90s.

Kansas City Chiefs

Regular Season Record: 11–6, Finished First in AFC West
Regular Season ATS Record: 9–7–1
Regular Season O/U Record: 5–12
Postseason Record: 3–0 (27-7 W vs. Dolphins, 27–24 W vs. Bills, 17–10 W vs. Ravens)
Postseason ATS Record: 3–0
Postseason O/U Record: 1–2

The Chiefs are back in the Big Game for the fourth time in five years. Of those almost annual appearances, this year’s run seemed the most improbable, as Kansas City finished with its worst record with Patrick Mahomes under center and had the fifth-best odds to win it all when the playoffs began. But behind a dominant defense and the mind-meld between Mahomes and Travis Kelce, the Chiefs are on the verge of adding another Lombardi to their trophy case.

You’ve probably heard the stat by now, but it bears repeating with the 49ers favored by 1.5: Mahomes is 11–1–1 against the spread as an underdog in his career and 10–3 straight up. That sterling record includes the AFC championship win over the Ravens in Baltimore, the divisional round victory against the Bills in Buffalo and last year’s Super Bowl triumph over the Eagles.

After six consecutive seasons of finishing no worse than sixth in points per game, Kansas City came in at 15th in the regular season (21.8). But their defense, which finished second in both points (17.3) and yards (289.8) allowed, was by far the best of the Mahomes era. Steve Spagnuolo’s unit has taken it up a notch in the playoffs, limiting opponents to just 13.7 points and 209.7 yards per game.

The Chiefs are not engaging in — or winning — any shootouts. Before the Bills game they were 0–4 straight up when allowing 21 or more points and they tied for the highest under rate in the NFL in the regular season. That’s continued into the postseason where the over has hit just once in three games. The 47.5-point over/under in the Super Bowl is the highest in a Kansas City game since Week 14. The under is 7–1 in games with a total of 47 points or higher and the one over was in Week 3 against the Bears, when the Chiefs scored a season-high 41 points.

Kansas City, which was spotty against the spread for much of the year, has now covered in five straight games. Reid and Mahomes know how to win in January and they are 2–1 together in February on the game’s biggest stage -- which, of course, includes their first ring at the 49ers’ expense back in 2020.

San Francisco 49ers

Regular Season Record: 12–5, Finished First in NFC West, Earned First Round Bye
Regular Season ATS Record: 9–8
Regular Season O/U Record: 10–7
Postseason Record: 2–0 (24–21 W vs. Packers, 34–31 W vs. Lions)
Postseason ATS Record: 0–2
Postseason O/U Record: 1–1

The 49ers have been the Super Bowl favorites for months and they carry that status into Sunday’s showdown with the Chiefs. This is San Francisco’s first time back in the Big Game since its 2020 loss to Kansas City, which was followed by back-to-back defeats in the NFC championship. With the highest-paid running back in the NFL and Mr. Irrelevant under center, Shanahan dialed up the most efficient offense in football, but this team has looked shockingly vulnerable so far in the postseason.

It’s been more than a full year since the 49ers were installed as an underdog. From Week 1 against the Steelers through the Super Bowl versus the Chiefs, they’ve been the team giving points — from as few as one to as many as 14.5. Since Christmas, covers have been hard to come by as San Francisco is just 1–4 against the spread over its last five games after posting an 8–6 record through the first 14 weeks of the season.

As the 49ers’ defense took a marginal step back this year, their offense ascended. After leading the league in scoring defense and yardage, San Francisco fell to third in points (17.5) and yards (303.9) allowed. Accordingly, its offense improved to third in scoring (28.9) and second in yards (398.4). The 49ers have more or less matched those offensive outputs in the postseason but their defense was gashed — specifically on the ground — by both the Packers and Lions and has given up 26 points and 384 yards on average. They also allowed 30 points for the third time this year to Detroit, something Kansas City hasn’t done once.

San Francisco’s games tend to devolve into shootouts, evidenced by the high-scoring NFC championship game they emerged from two weeks ago, which shattered the season-high 53.5-point total. They tend to win such games, though, as the 49ers are 20–0 all-time with Brock Purdy when scoring 20 or more points.

The over/under for the Super Bowl is actually lower than the 49ers’ two previous playoff games and the over has hit in three of their five games this season with totals set at 47 or higher. However, the under hit the last time these teams met on this stage with a lofty total of 53.

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