3 reasons why the Lakers should want to play the Nuggets in the first round

To get to the Finals, the Lakers are likely to have to go through Denver at some point. There are a few reasons to believe doing so sooner rather than later stands to benefit them.

By clawing their way to the West’s eighth seed, the Lakers have earned a rematch with the Pelicans and a chance to punch their ticket into the playoffs. While a loss would leave them with a do-or-die game against the winner of Warriors-Kings to win their way into the postseason, a dub would lock them into the seventh seed...matched up against the second-seeded Denver Nuggets.

Facing the Nuggets might seem like a worst-case scenario for fans hoping to see as many Laker games as possible this season, especially given the fact that the Nuggets have won eight straight matchups dating back to 2022, including a four-game sweep in the 2023 Western Conference Finals. However, if a championship remains the Lakers’ ultimate goal, the team should prefer the Nuggets as their first-round opponent.

As of today, Denver is the overwhelming favorite to win the West at +135 odds. To make the Finals, the Lakers are likely going to have to beat the Nuggets at some point. If they are going to lose to them, they might as well do so early, giving LeBron some extra rest before the Olympics and preventing the possibility of a catastrophic injury in a game that the Lakers would need to win to even have a chance of facing the Nuggets.

Since there are a few reasons the Lakers stand a better chance of surviving Denver now than they would later, the Lakers should lean into the challenge and embrace a first round matchup against the defending champs.

Health

Despite Christian Wood and Jarred Vanderbilt’s probable absences or limitations in a first round playoff series, the Lakers are otherwise at nearly full strength right now. Most importantly, LeBron is in a better place than he was last season when he truncated his recovery from a foot tendon injury to join in the Lakers’ 2022-23 resurgence.

LeBron’s overall athleticism in the playoffs was below the level he showed before the injury last season and has displayed for the majority of this season as well. In response to a question about his health right now, LeBron said he felt “better than I did at the end of the season last year going into the postseason.” Given his relatively clean health status right now, the Lakers should be excited to attempt their biggest challenge as soon as possible.

On one leg, LeBron’s shooting suffered in particular as he made only 26.4% of his threes in the playoffs and 26.9% of his threes in the conference finals. Conversely, LeBron just finished the season shooting a career-high 41.0% from deep and drilled a Curry-esque 43.5% of his triples since the start of February.

Even after 178 combined games played between LeBron and AD — including the In-Season Tournament Championship — nicks, bruises or worse can come out of nowhere, especially when facing the intensity of the playoffs. Further, the effort required to perform at an elite level is a massive toll for an almost-40-year-old LeBron, so getting ahead of the inevitable attrition of the playoffs benefits the Lakers, rather than the Nuggets, who are younger and will likely be fresher in the later rounds.

Finally, it is worth pointing out that the Lakers may be able to slow Jamal Murray by throwing Gabe Vincent at him, a player they only had available in their first matchup this year on the season’s opening night. Vincent’s combination of quickness and physicality may make it harder for Murray to get going, even if stopping him entirely is an impossibility.

Timing

In addition to their overall health, the Lakers are playing some of their best basketball of the season. Since the All-Star Break, when they were sitting at merely .500, the Lakers have gone 17-9, good enough for the sixth-best record in the NBA. Over the last two weeks, the Lakers have the fifth-best offense and the 14th-best defense in the NBA. Each of those marks is better than their season-long rating.

Although their defense is clearly lagging behind their offense, that split bodes well for their playoff potential, since so much of their defensive fortitude comes down to LeBron’s level of engagement on any given night.

For example, after giving up 120 points to the NBA’s worst offense in Memphis on Saturday, the Lakers held New Orleans, the ninth-best offense over the past two weeks, to just 103 points after four quarters.

In addition to guarding Zion Williamson, LeBron assumed lead playmaking duties, dishing out a career-high 13 first-half assists on his way to 17 total along with five steals, a block and 11 boards to complement his 28 points. Other than arguably Anthony Davis, who has been the Lakers’ steadiest performer this season, LeBron looked like the best player on the floor by far, and someone who looks as ready to champion a long playoff run as he has in years.

Finally, the Lakers have committed to their best identity, starting and closing with Rui Hachimura at the three. That lineup, which features Austin Reaves and D’Angelo Russell in the backcourt with LeBron and AD as the two bigs, has been the 10th-best lineup in the NBA this season with a minimum of 800 possessions, according to Cleaning the Glass.

Although the Nuggets have two of the top seven groupings, the Lakers are at least aware of an identity they know they can play their best basketball with. In last season’s Western Conference Finals, the Lakers began Game 1 with a three-guard lineup featuring Dennis Schroder instead of Rui, who was a +10, and 26 minutes from D’Angelo Russell, who finished the game as a -25. This year, the Lakers can start the series with Rui on the floor and move more quickly away from D’Lo and toward Gabe Vincent if Russell starts out struggling.

Leverage

If the Lakers can beat the Nuggets, they’ll likely head into every subsequent Western Conference series as a considerable favorite. Conversely, if the Lakers were to have to wait to finally face Denver in the Conference Finals, each preceding series win would be evaluated with the caveat that the Nuggets remain at large.

Further, no long but unsuccessful playoff run can justify any half-measures this offseason. If the Lakers get bounced in the first round, they will need to make serious changes in order to convince LeBron to stick around for next year and beyond.

If D’Angelo Russell falls apart in that series again, he won’t likely be worth more than the $17.5M that he can choose to opt out of this summer, making him more likely to be a Laker again or at least a trade chip this summer. Further, this offseason, the Lakers will have three tradeable future firsts, meaning that if there is a deal out there that can net them an All-Star caliber player, they probably have just enough capital to get it done.

Ultimately, a series win over the Nuggets is a best-case scenario for the Lakers’ championship chances and a first round loss is better for next year’s chances as opposed to a late-round exit. Either way, a first round meeting with Denver offers definitive answers about the franchise moving forward.

In total, there are many reasons the Lakers should be excited about the opportunity to vanquish their demons from this past postseason. With a chance to win the third round of this trilogy — as the past two winners have gone on to become champions — the Lakers should effectively see this as their Finals, as the road to No. 18 would only get easier from there.

You can follow Cooper on Twitter at @cooperhalpern.