Bipartisan Senate group praises Guatemala for sticking with Taiwan

A bipartisan group of senators is lauding Guatemala's newly inaugurated President Bernardo Arévalo for maintaining diplomatic relations with Taiwan, as the island nation's diplomatic allies increasingly opt instead to maintain relations with China.

Sens. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) and Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.) on Thursday led a letter to Arévalo celebrating Guatemala's ongoing relationship with Taiwan.

"In the face of increasing coercion and economic inducements from the [Chinese Communist Party (CCP)] against several democratic nations around the world, Guatemala’s steadfast dedication to maintaining formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan stands as a beacon of courage and integrity," they wrote.

Only 12 countries around the world maintain formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan, a country that communist China claims as a breakaway province.

Because of the CCP's "One China" policy, countries have to choose whether they establish an embassy in Beijing or Taipei. Beijing will not engage in direct diplomatic relations with countries that choose the latter.

The dispute dates back to 1949, when the Chinese Nationalist Kuomintang party fled to Taiwan after being defeated by Mao Zedong's CCP on the battlefield.

At the time the United States and its allies — mostly in the Indo-Pacific and in the Americas — kept relations with the nationalist government and shunned the communists, but U.S.-China relations began thawing in 1972, leading to then-President Carter's decision in 1979 to reestablish diplomatic relations with the People's Republic of China (PRC).

Over the past 45 years, many U.S. allies have followed suit, often attracted by Beijing's promises of trade and investment, despite encouragement from Washington to remain on Taiwan's side.

Rubio and Merkley, who were joined by Sens. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa), Tim Kaine (D-Va.), John Boozman (R-Ark.), Steve Daines (R-Mont.) and Roger Wicker (R-Miss.), warned Arévalo that communist China's promises have not panned out.

"We also note that despite promises and pledges made by the CCP to the other countries that have recently established diplomatic relations with the PRC, Chinese foreign direct investment to Latin America has more than halved since 2019 — from an annual average of $14.2 billion to less than $7 billion in 2022," they wrote.

"Dozens of projects financed, or contracted to Chinese firms, such as Costa Rica’s highway network announced in 2019, the Nicaragua canal announced in 2013, and Colombia’s 'dry canal' project announced in 2011, still remain either unfinished or not even begun."

The last country to switch diplomatic ties from Taiwan to China was Nauru, a Pacific island state that, like its neighbors, has been targeted by China as a base to expand its sphere of influence while shrinking U.S. reach in the region.

Guatemala and Belize are the only two Central American countries left on Taiwan's diplomatic rolls, after Honduras broke relations in March of last year.

While Chinese "dollar diplomacy" has courted countries either veering to the left or openly opposed to U.S. influence in Latin America, such as Nicaragua, it has also pulled in U.S. allies such as Panama and the Dominican Republic, which moved their embassies to Beijing in 2017 and 2018, respectively.

And China remains on the offensive.

Earlier this month, it warned Arévalo that bilateral trade relations depend on Guatemala breaking with Taiwan "as soon as possible."

Arévalo, an anti-corruption reformer who engineered a surprise victory and was inaugurated in January, has said he will not abandon Taiwan, though he campaigned on bringing Guatemala closer to mainland China.

But Arévalo told Reuters earlier this month that Guatemala "will not choose" and instead pursue relations with both Taipei and Beijing, regardless of the "One China" policy.

"In the face of increasing coercion and economic inducements from the CCP against several democratic nations around the world, Guatemala’s steadfast dedication to maintaining formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan stands as a beacon of courage and integrity," wrote the senators. 

"By reaffirming this relationship, Guatemala reinforced its allegiance to democratic values and the bonds of solidarity among nations committed to democracy, freedom, human rights, and respect for the rule of law."