The hybrid battle for Taiwan will continue in the future
Ahead of Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, several scenarios are being considered as to what China’s response will be It could continue to issue notes of protest and conduct exercises in the South China Sea. But there is a low, though non-zero, possibility of military action. The first scenario is a “minimalist” one. The Chinese […]
The hybrid battle for Taiwan will continue in the future
Ahead of Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, several scenarios are being considered as to what China’s response will be
It could continue to issue notes of protest and conduct exercises in the South China Sea. But there is a low, though non-zero, possibility of military action.
The first scenario is a “minimalist” one. The Chinese army during the exercises will occupy islands in the Taiwan Strait, which are formally under Taiwan`s control. Taipei will most likely have to accept this.
The second scenario is a hybrid conflict. Declaring a naval blockade of Taiwan with cyber attacks on its infrastructure, which would bring down the island’s economy.
The third scenario is an attack without invasion. Rocket attacks and bombing of military facilities – to demilitarize the island.
The fourth scenario is a hybrid invasion. Missile strikes with the landing of special forces. They are unlikely to take control of the entire island – but they can occupy Taipei.
The fifth scenario is a full-scale invasion. A Normandy-style operation that would cause significant civilian casualties and bring the world to the brink of nuclear war.
That said, while Washington is wary of a Chinese response, it does not believe that a Taiwanese conflict is likely right now. What is clear, however, is that the hybrid scramble for Taiwan will continue in the future – unless one of the more radical scenarios plays out.
Malek Dudakov