Our View: Is the president’s Cyprob optimism wishful thinking or diversion?

President Christodoulides, for the last couple of weeks, has been forecasting “some development in the Cyprus issue,” which could materialise in August or early September. He repeated this prediction again at the presidential palace on Monday at a gathering of the heads of Republic’s diplomatic missions.

This has been mentioned publicly on several occasions, although the president failed to say why he thought there would be developments. Was it a hunch, an educated guess or had he actually been informed by the UN that something positive would happen? Such was his confidence and enthusiasm that he brought up his idea of the appointment of an EU envoy for the Cyprus problem. The idea, although heavily promoted by the president after his election, came to nothing and was forgotten until now.

With alleged developments on the horizon, the presidential idea of the EU envoy was thrown into the mix, regardless of the fact that it has always been a non-starter, perhaps to give some credence to his prediction, which, understandably, few have taken seriously. How could it be taken seriously considering nothing appears to have changed since the UNSG’s personal envoy Maria Angela Holguin’s mandate ended in complete failure?

The Turkish side has not changed its position on the two states, separate sovereignty and equal international status, President Erdogan making this abundantly clear whenever he talks about the Cyprus issue. Turkish Cypriot leader Ersin Tatar is more than happy to play along which makes it very difficult to understand where Christodoulides’ optimism comes from. There is a possibility that he had been briefed by the UN about a move, which Turkey did not oppose, but it is also possible that he read too much into what he had been told.

It is also possible that the president is engaging in a communications policy aimed at neutralising the criticism about his handling of the Cyprus problem. He had pleaded for the appointment of a UN envoy, secured it, but she came and left without achieving anything. The Disy leader publicly slammed him in a strong-worded letter for failing to exploit the presence of the envoy as did Akel, both parties being of the opinion that was unwilling to do anything to help break the deadlock.

Talk about the imminent positive development started soon after Holguin’s departure and the questioning of his approach by the two biggest parties. The prospect of a development put an end to the criticism of the president; it also diverted attention away from the failure of Holguin’s mission. This was an emphatic failure that could signal the end of UN involvement in the Cyprus issue, a prospect the president would not like to be discussed.

What Christodoulides will do when we reach early September – or the end of September – and the positive developments he is predicting do not materialise? He will probably have a new communications policy for dealing with that when the time comes.