YouTube TV set to lead US pay-TV by 2027

YouTube TV is on course to overtake traditional pay-TV giants Charter and Comcast, becoming the largest pay-TV operator in the United States by 2027, according to new forecasts from Omdia. 

This would mark the first time a virtual pay-TV provider claims the top market position.

Omdia’s analysis underscores the rapid growth trajectory of YouTube TV and its continued expansion into traditional pay-TV territory. 

At the end of 2025, Charter held 11.4 million subscribers, Comcast 10.6 million, and YouTube TV 9.3 million. 

By 2027, forecasts project YouTube TV will reach 10.4 million subscribers, surpassing Charter at 10.0 million and Comcast at 9.2 million.

“For the first time in US television history, the largest pay-TV operator will be a virtual provider,” said Maria Rua Aguete, Head of Media and Entertainment at Omdia. 

“YouTube TV has evolved into a full pay-TV bundle, integrating linear channels, premium networks, and marquee sports properties such as NFL Sunday Ticket. 

This is not just another streaming service; it is the new face of US pay TV,” she added.

Rua Aguete highlighted that YouTube’s influence extends far beyond pay-TV. With nearly 3 billion global users, YouTube remains the largest video ecosystem in the world. 

“Netflix may reach 300 million global subscribers, but alongside YouTube’s 3 billion users, it is not a dominant global player,” she said. “YouTube operates at a scale that no subscription service can match.” 

This dual position, combining global video dominance and rising pay-TV leadership, gives YouTube a unique strategic advantage in the media landscape.

Omdia’s data also paints a picture of the US streaming market as large, fragmented, and intensely competitive. 

Even the largest platform, Netflix, accounts for just 15.7 per cent of total US SVOD subscriptions. 

In 2025, Netflix is forecast to have 88.7 million subscribers, Amazon Prime Video 64.7 million, Disney+ 55.8 million, Paramount+ 49.4 million, and HBO Max 29.7 million.

“The idea of Netflix as a dominant streaming service is a misconception,” Rua Aguete said. 

“Audience attention and spend are spread across a wide array of platforms,” Aguete added. 

Omdia’s research shows a clear shift towards hybrid services blending linear TV, premium channels, live sports, user-generated content, and on-demand content. 

With YouTube TV poised to lead US pay-TV and YouTube already commanding the world’s biggest video audience, the company exemplifies the direction of the industry.

Rua Aguete also addressed consolidation pressures in Hollywood, noting strong interest in Warner assets. 

“Paramount and Warner remain two of the most strategically valuable assets in Hollywood,” she said. 

“Interest from players such as Netflix or Paramount reflects the growing need for scale, premium IP, and global distribution,” she concluded.